Yeah two days ago There were nine thermal units disconnected from the National Electric System (SEN), this Friday morning there were “only” six. One of them, moreover, must be operational at night, in accordance with the official forecast.
A priorithe above is good news in the midst of the endless energy crisis suffered by Cuba. However, in practice the constant blackouts show no signs of improvement.
Since last Wednesday, units 5 and 6 of the Renté thermoelectric plant, 3 of Santa Cruz del Norte and 6 of Mariel, which had left on Thursday morning, have rejoined the SEN. However, the deficit has remained very high – driven by demand – while electricity generation has barely recovered availability compared to previous days.
After a maximum impact yesterday of 1722 MW — “higher than planned due to increased demand” and the failure to arrive on time for the two planned units — the availability at 6:00 AM today was only 1696 MW, while the impact already exceeded 1000 MW.
At noon the deficit estimated by the Unión Eléctrica (UNE) will be similar, but at night it will increase again, despite the fact that by then block 1 of Santa Cruz del Norte should have been synchronized, which in the last two weeks had been under maintenance.
Thermal limitations increase
Although the number of stopped units has decreased, the MW that are lost due to the limitations of those that are in operation have increased. For today there will be 462 MW that will not be generated for this concept, 57 more than yesterday and 150 more than on wednesday.
In addition, 525 MW will no longer be produced in distributed generation due to lack of fuel and also lubricants. None of them will be available this Friday, not even at night.
For all of the above, the UNE foresees an availability in the nighttime peak of 1,746 MW—even lower than that initially planned for yesterday, although higher than that of a day before—, while the maximum estimated impact for that time slot is 1,674 MW.
However, whether this forecast is met will depend on Santa Cruz unit 3 being connected without problems, no “unforeseen output” occurring, and demand not exceeding the officially forecast 3,350 MW.
Otherwise, the UNE estimate would once again fall short of reality, while the blackouts would punish Cubans even more than expected.
