Economic uncertainty in Colombia gave way in September, but the country has not yet managed to fully recover confidence, as confirmed by the most recent report of the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (Ipec) published by Fedesarrollo, which stood at 232 points, which represents a reduction of 39 points compared to August (271) and 42 points compared to the same month of 2024 (274).
Although the decrease marks a significant improvement, it is worth saying that this indicator completes 84 consecutive months above the historical average recorded between 2000 and 2019, which is 100 points, making it clear that despite the recent moderation, the level of uncertainty around the country’s economic, social and geopolitical policy continues to be more than double what is considered normal under conditions of stability.
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The Fedesarrollo report shows that, on average, the 2025 Ipec remains above the levels observed before the pandemic and the years of greatest economic calm; while the average for the year to September was 255 points, 15 less than in the same period of 2024 (270) and 3 points less than the average for all of last year (258).
For Fedesarrollo, this improvement reflects a gradual adjustment in the perceptions of the media and economic agents, although the indicator is still far from the levels of confidence that characterized the Colombian economy before 2018. In fact, they point out that since October of that year, the index has not fallen below the 100 line again, which shows a prolonged phase of uncertainty marked by political crises, external shocks and internal factors that have affected expectations.
For now, the economic and political uncertainty in Colombia marks a slight setback.
The bulletin recalls that Ipec has captured the most critical moments in the past of the country such as the economic emergency of 1996-1997, the financial crisis of 1999, the fall in oil prices between 2014 and 2016, the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the peak of the risk premium in October 2022 and highlights that the current value of 232 points is interpreted more as a temporary relief than as a sign of return to stability.
What topics focus your attention?
Reviewing other points of the report, it is worth saying that the Ipec not only measures the level of uncertainty, but also the issues that most concern public opinion and analysts. During September, 52% of the news captured by the indicator was related to economic, social and geopolitical policy, a category that includes debates on reforms, electoral cycles and the international situation.
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However, this category lost prominence compared to the previous month, when it represented close to 60% of the mentions; while security was the topic that increased its participation the most, with an increase of 3.7 points percentages, followed by the categories of economic activity (+3.0 points) and others (+2.0 points).
Meanwhile, the financial variables slightly reduced their weight (-0.7 points) and compared to September 2024, the thematic panorama shows a shift in the media focus, given that mentions of security (+3.3 pp) and other topics (+1.8 pp) grew, while economic activity (-3.7 pp) and economic policy (-1.6 pp) reduced their participation.
For now, the economic and political uncertainty in Colombia marks a slight setback.
Despite the reduction in the index, Fedesarrollo warns that uncertainty remains at high levels and that the country has not yet fully recovered confidence. Likewise, it highlights that the fact that the indicator remains above 200 points for seven consecutive years indicates that the agents Economics continue to face an environment of information and political volatility.
Now the challenge will be to maintain this trend and ensure that economic policy transmits clearer signals of confidence and predictability; while the message it leaves is one of cautious optimism and indicates that uncertainty is cooling, but confidence has not yet completely returned.
DANIEL HERNÁNDEZ NARANJO
Portfolio Journalist
