After chaining two years of recession at the end of 2024, the cuban economy decreased again in the first half of this year, as admitted by the island’s Government.
The new setback is due to the decrease in exports and the non-compliance in national production, according to a report about the most recent meeting of the Council of Ministers, where the “complex economic scenario” facing the island was reviewed.
However, neither in this nor in other press reviews of the government analysis did the magnitude of the decrease publicly emerge, nor did any figures on the performance of the different sectors appear publicly, which generates doubts, suspicions and information gaps.
In a publication on his networks about what transpired from the Council of Ministers, the independent economist Pedro Monreal regretted the lack of public data on the current state of the economy on the island.
“The absence of figures in the press release does not help to understand what they are doing specifically nor does it allow us to evaluate what they are trying to do,” said Monreal, who stressed that “economic policy is not a simple story.”
Is it a council of ministers or a “commission of confusion”? The absence of figures in the press release does not help to understand what they are doing specifically nor does it allow us to evaluate what they are trying to do. Economic policy is not a simple story pic.twitter.com/EzqYTe79fT
— Pedro Monreal (@pmmonreal) October 8, 2025
Cuba closed last year with a contraction of 1.1% in its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), after declining 1.9% in 2023. Although in the previous two years the country had registered slight growth, if the performance since 2020 is taken into account, the general drop reaches 11%.
The Government had forecast a growth of 1% in 2025, a figure that contrasts with the previous economic scenario and the ECLAC forecastwhich foresees a new decline of 1.5%. With this, the island would add its third consecutive annual decrease, and in the region it would only have a better outlook than Haiti, whose economy should fall 2.3% this year.
Fall in exports and reduction of the fiscal deficit
The drop in exports compared to what was initially planned was one of the aspects addressed during the meeting of the Council of Ministers.
President Miguel Díaz-Canel attributed this situation to the effects of the United States embargo/blockade, but also to “internal deficiencies and obstacles that persist,” and stressed the need to comply with what was planned and “be more efficient throughout this process.” review Granma.
“We are the ones who have to overcome this situation,” considered the president, who insisted that the foreign currency that the country needs depends on exports, so the factors that are influencing its non-compliance must be “analyzed in depth.”
In addition, Díaz-Canel called for “strengthening” the export of services, including tourism – which is experiencing a significant decline – and also “computer services and others that can provide a higher level of income.”
Likewise, he called for growth in agricultural and industrial production, because, he said, if that primary sector “does not produce more, we are very limited,” he says. Granma.
However, the official review does not offer data on exports or national productions, beyond the president’s considerations and calls. Nor about the reduction of the fiscal deficit reported by the Minister of Finance and Prices, Vladimir Regueiro Ale.
In this regard, the report only indicates that the reduction is “important, marked above all by the over-fulfillment of income,” while warning that “significant non-executions in expenses, both current and capital expenses,” have begun to be expressed.
Finally, the Council of Ministers approved the new Foreign Investment Opportunities Portfolio, which is made up of 426 projects, and also analyzed several draft decrees, including one on agricultural and forestry marketing, as well as the regulations of the “Customs” Decree-Law.
