The United States has been reducing its global leadership in solving global problems. It has not ratified almost 50 important international treaties that were made to solve problems. It has gone from being a stabilizing force to one of volatility.
The elimination of the North American development aid agency that channeled resources to poor countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America is a hard blow. Its negative effect is felt.
The departure of the United States from the World Health Organization, from UNESCO, from the new Paris Agreement on climate change, from the Trans-Pacific Partnership multilateral trade agreement, from the World Labor Organization is also regrettable. It has hindered reforms at the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, which are fundamental in the design of development policies and financing for countries with balance of payments problems. It has also blocked the operation of the dispute settlement mechanism of the World Trade Organization. And the International Criminal Court lost its teeth by withdrawing its ratification.
With Trump, unilateralism and isolationism are affirmed. It affects its allies with tariffs and imposes high levels of them on China, India and Brazil. But he also dares to make reckless political statements. At the UN he said: “Europe is going to destruction for promoting renewable energy.” It ignores scientists and the recognized fact that renewable energy can mitigate climate change. There he also said that “recognizing Palestine is a reward for Hamas.” And the Palestinian people don’t count?
Trump is narcissistic and arrogant. Inside your country there is no political front that questions it. The Democratic Party has demonstrated a lack of critical and purposeful activism. It only serves a narrow and privileged elite.
The global south, regardless of the size of the countries, is abandoned to its fate. International institutions are weak and countries that have leadership show prudence to protect vested interests, and distance themselves from Trump and his weakness towards Putin. The threat is not just that Trump admires Putin, but that he becomes like him.
China takes advantage of the vacuum left by Trump and shows its economic importance. In addition to establishing reciprocal tariffs on American products, it promotes infrastructure in countries through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the new BRICS development bank. This group of countries represents 45% of the world’s population and 35% of global GDP. Its purpose is to identify complementarities between sectors and strategic activities. It has dozens of public development banks with investment mandates.
As long as there is no rectification of American unilateralism, the Chinese advance will be greater and greater. But it does not guarantee a new international order.
The desirable thing is not to impose surprise tariffs by the United States, although this, although affecting, will not cause a global collapse, because the United States only represents 13% of world imports. The US’s rectification of its withdrawal from international agreements would also be valuable.
The global south needs to redefine itself around a rules-based international system and a more interactive democracy. A world with treaties and multilateral organizations is better than without them.
