The Colombian economy seems to have found a stable rhythm in the midst of uncertainty and after a first semester marked by deceleration and a second quarter in which GDP grew 2.5%, the country is close to the closing of 2025 with a mixture of prudent optimism and alerts on; in which consumption keeps productive activity, but inflation, The fiscal deficit and the slow recovery of some key sectors force to maintain surveillance.
According to the minutes of the Bank of the Republic, the economic activity “maintains a good dynamism”, promoted by a robust internal demand, the spending of households and an incipient investment recovery. However, issuer directors warn that inflation continues to stagnate around 5%, which delays Its convergence to the 3% goal and keeps the monetary authority in a prudent position.
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We must not forget that recently, four of the seven members of the Board voted to maintain the unaltered interest rate, while three advocated new moderate cuts, reflecting the division between those who prioritize to control prices and those who seek to give more oxygen to growth.
In order to delve into what is expected in the market, Portfolio spoke with various analysts And most of them agree that the fourth quarter will be the most dynamic of the year, driven by household consumption, remittances, tourism and Christmas season.
The country’s economy faces several challenges at the end of this year.
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For example, for César Pabón, Director of Economic Research of Corficolombiana, we must not overlook that “December traditionally drives trade and consumption, and this year will not be the exception.” In his opinion, the greatest confidence of consumers, the payment of premiums and the proximity of the
guarantees law will promote purchases and public investment.
In this sense, it is expected that trade, industry and tourism will be the great winners of the season, together with the agricultural sector, which still benefits from a coffee bonanza and favorable export prices. Pabón also anticipates a positive effect of territorial execution in Vespers of local elections, which could inject liquidity into the economy.
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Meanwhile, Camilo Herrera, raddar co -founder, agrees that homes will be the main engine, but warns that “inflation remains thick”, which limits purchasing power and explains that “credit rates do not lower enough and that maintains pressure on consumption.” Despite this, it provides for a rebound in the purchases of technology, costumes and entertainment, typical items of the year.
From BBVA Research, Mauricio Hernández Monsalve also highlights the role of the domestic market And he says that “private consumption remains firm and investment in machinery still contributes, while construction begins to gradually rise”; So from its perspective, the impulse comes from fronts such as the labor market, which continues to create employment, robust remittances and a consumer loan that begins to normalize.
The country’s economy faces several challenges at the end of this year.
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Analysts also highlight that the exchange rate also helps, since the Colombian peso has remained firm, and although it could be slightly depreciated around $ 4,150 per dollar, the global environment looks more favorable with international rates down and a less volatile dollar.
Water inflation and monetary policy vigilant
The other great consensus among analysts is that the problem is not in growth, but in inflation and fiscal deficit. Not surprisingly, the Bank of the Republic acknowledged that convergence towards the 3% goal will be slower of the expected, and that the price increase is concentrated in services, leases and meals outside the home.
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“Disinflation will be slow due to the stiffness of regulated services and prices,” says Hernández, who provides that the bank maintain its rate around 9.25% during the remainder of the year, “waiting for clear and persistent signals of low inflation.”
Another of the voices that intervened was that of Professor Julio Enrique Duarte, Dean of Economics of the University of San Buenaventura, who agrees that the posture of the sender is adequate, but warns that “the inflation of services and regulated maintains the pressure”, which slows the purchase capacity of households.
The country’s economy faces several challenges at the end of this year.
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Duarte also emphasizes that the 7.1% fiscal deficit of GDP, after the suspension of the fiscal rule, aggravates macroeconomic vulnerability and makes it clear that “the government needs a credible fiscal path. The slowness in the execution of the budget, since only 37% had been executed in the middle of the year, prevents public investment from fulfilling its countercyclical role.”
Sector review
Another of the elements to be reviewed for the closing of 2025 is that the sectorial scenario shows an economy of contrasts in which trade, transport, tourism and business services maintain rhythm, supported by consumption and employment; while manufacturing, linked to Internal market, it is gaining traction, especially in household goods and machinery.
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Here is a panorama of lights and shadows that stands out for the recovery signals in housing, with more licenses and presales; While mining and buildings are still lagging behind. Similarly, analysts agree that the high cost of credit and political uncertainty continue to brake private investment.
Meanwhile, the agricultural sector, although positive, shows less impulse front To previous months, and experts insist that climatic phenomena such as the girl could alter production and logistics.
The country’s economy faces several challenges at the end of this year.
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Finally, among the winds in favor, in the market there is talk of employment, which reached historically low levels, the rebound of international tourism and the moderation of global rates that relieves external financial conditions. There is also consensus in which the stability of the dollar, robust international reserves and regional dynamism offer a solid floor for the closure of 2025.
Andrés Moreno Jaramillo, market analyst, warns that all this moves in a delicate balance in which “the key is that inflation does not rebound and that the Bank of the Republic does not lower rates too fast. The government must focus on executing works and strengthening investor trust. ”
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In this way, Colombia faces the final stretch of the year with an economy that does not lose its impulse, but that requires constant attention, given that consumption and employment support growth, but inflation and fiscal fragility are reminders that there is no room for carelessness. All this, amid bets for reasonably good numbers at the end of the validity.
Daniel Hernández Naranjo
Portfolio journalist
