This difference is obtained from an exercise that divides countries into two groups: the diversified ones, with a greater number of commercial partners in 2024, and those not diversified, with concentrated exports.
Volatility was measured by the coefficient of variation, a statistical indicator that compares how much shipments fluctuate compared to its average in periods of three months. That is, the magnitude of relative instability in each group is represented.
Luz María de la Mora, director of International Trade and Basic Products at UNCTAD, warns that uncertainty became a more harmful obstacle than the tariffs themselves. Companies can absorb a higher cost, but what paralyzes the investment is not knowing what decision will make Washington the following week or when it will enter into force.
The global commercial uncertainty index that UNCTAD also reached in 2025 a level four times higher than the financial crisis of 2008. This volatility already hits developing countries, whose exports to the United States experience oscillations up to twice more pronounced than those of advanced economies.
Faced with this panorama, two factors offer protection. The first is market diversification. China illustrates that advantage. In the second quarter of 2025, their sales to the United States fell, but the placements in other countries increased and managed to compensate for the loss. The result was a total growth of its exports and a limited impact on its economy.
Mexico against concentration
Mexico faces a dilemma in this field. Although their exports do not show a collapse, the concentration in a single destination is evident. More than 80% of what sells abroad ends in the United States. The geographical closeness, productive complementarity and market size make the US economy an almost impossible magnet to avoid.
Sergio Silva Castañeda, head of the Economic Development and Growth Unit of the Ministry of Economy, acknowledges that diversifying would be ideal, but raises the complexity of the challenge. “Any economic actor in Mexico must have in mind the idea of diversifying, but we are a country that shares a 3,000 -kilometer border with the world’s largest economy. In addition, this is a country of free business. We cannot tell entrepreneurs not to export to the United States as long as it remains the most profitable business,” he says.
The case of the Mexican automotive sector demonstrates it. The industry is designed to meet the demand for pickup trucks in southern United States. That same production would hardly find a market in other regions. Modifying the lines to manufacture different models would imply time and large investments, in addition to the need to open market wide enough to justify the change.
Agreements as stability umbrellas
The second shield against volatility is trade agreements. These pacts offer clear rules, legal certainty and dispute solution mechanisms that allow planning in the long term. UNCTAD data confirms that trade within regional agreements is less volatile than the one who develops outside them. In 2025, the variability of the trade under treaties stood at 0.15 points, while the non -covered one reached 0.21 points.
De la Mora emphasizes that free trade agreements and regional ones provide predictability and stability, key elements for companies to encourage even in an environment of global uncertainty. Companies that participate in value chains within an agreement tend to suffer less disruptions and maintain their long -term plans.
However, treaties are not immune. The T-MEC offers a clear example. While one of its members unilaterally modifies its commercial policy, the value of the agreement weakens. This reflects that the effectiveness of the treaties also depends on the coherence of the policies of its members.
Even with these limitations, the agreements remain a stability pillar. They provide a legal framework that protects against sudden changes, establish dispute resolution mechanisms and offer certainty to investors. In a world in which commercial policy is increasingly used as an internal and external pressure tool, that protection network is crucial.
The tariff volatility of the Trump era reconfigured the way of understanding international trade. It is not just about producing and selling, but about doing so with strategies that reduce risks.
