The national grain harvest should reach 261.6 million tons in 2022, according to the February estimate of the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA), released today (10) by the IBGE. The volume represents a decline of 3.8% compared to the previous month’s estimate. Despite this, according to the IBGE, the harvest should advance 3.3% compared to 2021, when it reached 253.2 million tons, a new record in the historical series.
For the research manager, Carlos Barradas, the result was influenced by climatic factors. “This decline in the estimate is due to the climatic problems faced by states in the South region, such as Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná, notably the lack of rain during the 1st harvest,” he said.
main production commodity in the country, soybeans should reach 123.0 million tons, which represents a reduction of 6.7% compared to the estimate for January and of 8.8% compared to the last year. “Even with high investments in legume production, the adverse effects caused by the drought have drastically affected the performance of summer crops in the south-central states of the country”, informed the manager.
With an estimated drop of 1.1% compared to the previous month and an increase of 23.9% compared to 2021, corn production is expected to reach 108.7 million tons. “After a large drop in production in 2021, the effects of the delay in planting the 2nd crop and the lack of rain in the main producing states, a year within normality is expected, which will allow the recovery of corn crops, including reaching a new national record”, he added.
Rice should have a production of 10.7 million tons, a volume that will correspond to a 3.2% decline from the previous month and 7.9% from the previous year. Carlos Barradas evaluated that the main responsible for the fall was the strong drought in the South Region that affected the rainfed crops and restricted the irrigation of most of the others. Even so, the manager considered that consumption will not be reached. “Both rice and bean production must meet domestic market consumption,” he said.
Soybean, corn and rice crops are equivalent to 92.7% of the estimated production and account for 87.7% of the area to be harvested in 2022.
Variations
Still in the February estimate, there was a highlight with positive changes in relation to the January estimate in the production of 2nd harvest corn (0.50%), sorghum (2.3%) and cocoa (2.3%). On the other hand, declines are expected in the production of corn 1st harvest (-5.9%), potatoes 1st harvest (-3.5%), grapes (-1.4%) and potatoes 2nd harvest (-1.0%).
Regions
With the increases in the estimates of the Northeast (1.4%) and North (3.4%) regions compared to January. Production in these regions is expected to reach 24.7 million tons and 12.4 million tons, respectively. The biggest drop is for the South (13.7%), which should reach 69.2 million tons. For the Southeast with 26.7 million tons and the Midwest with 128.4 million tons, there is no change in production estimates compared to the previous month.
survey
The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (started in November 1972. The intention is to meet the demands of users for monthly statistical information, with estimates of planted area, harvested area, quantity produced and average yield of selected products based on criteria of economic importance “It allows not only the monitoring of each crop investigated, from the planting intention phase until the end of the harvest, in the reference calendar year, but also the forecast of the following year’s crop, for which the survey is carried out in the months of October, November and December”, informed the IBGE.
