CREDICORP CAPITAL He held the Conference Investor for the first time in Santiago de Chile, where expectations were presented for Chile, Colombia and Peru, and the current situation of the markets in those countries was analyzed. Daniel Velandia, chief economist of Credicorp Capital, spoke with Peru21 and explained the impact of retreats on the capital market.
Peru, Chile and Colombia are almost in an electoral process. The three countries change government in 2026. How does this scenario perceive the market?
The markets have been incorporated, in large part, the possibility of a change towards more promoted governments. In Chile this has been evident. In the case of Peru, the country is enjoying a good moment for copper and gold prices, as well as the recovery of the economy. To this is added the impact of the withdrawal of the AFP.
What do you think can be the impact of retreats on the capital market?
With the withdrawal of the AFPs we are always optimistic. It is clear that it will have a negative effect for affiliates, but what we have seen in the previous retreats is that, when the market falls, it becomes an opportunity to buy. I think the market was waiting for the retirement to be approved. Surely he will wait a few weeks for the blow to feel, with effective sales of shares, and then I think he will do well to the Peruvian market, especially anticipating what could happen in the April election.
How can it affect that, in the face of pressures, the government and Congress reversed the reforms they make?
I believe that the market already knows Peru. Honestly, I think we are all waiting for July to arrive next year, because in reality that will not change. Personally, I had on my stage a very high probability of the withdrawal of the AFPs, which should necessarily come with the change of the pension reform regulations because, otherwise, they would not have been able to do the withdrawal. When you have a unicameral congress, if you include two articles in a law, you change everything.
Do you think things in Peru could change with bicamerality?
I believe that the market is preparing for a situation that ends up being favorable, and it is bicamerality from 2026. Risk ratingers, and I dare to say investors in general, we see with good eyes the return of bicamerality because, beyond that things are approved or not, at least take more time in the discussion. One would think that the counterweight system is balancing.
Have the market learned to swim these turbulent waves?
Completely. The market in general has known how to navigate the context well. What we have seen is that, in recent months, about four months ago, the same AFPs have been discharged from local actions safely, because they also anticipated that another retirement was coming. Then, he doesn’t grab them by surprise; The market knows how to react. Even, until yesterday, the Peruvian market has not reacted so negatively because it already knows how to face these types of situations.
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