During the seminar the challenges of the fiscal system in Mexico, organized by the Independent Commission for Fiscal Equality, the expert warned that this stagnation is not a conjunctural accident, but the reflection of a budget structure submitted to growing tensions in income, expense and debt.
Alejandro Werner, founding director of the Georgetown Americas Institute, agreed that, although Mexico does not face an immediate crisis, it does travel towards greater financial vulnerability.
The six -year period with lower growth per inhabitant
The six-year period of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (2018-2024) closed with the lowest growth per inhabitant in four decades, with several negative years and others barely positive.
“Public investment is at a precarious level of 2.5% of GDP, and that explains why we have not been able to generate a drag process towards private investment,” said Esquivel, explaining why economic dynamism has been so low and fails to translate into well -being improvements.
Insufficient income against rising spending
Although the SAT reported record collection figures in the first months of 2025, Esquivel stressed that at an aggregate level public income is stagnant.
Budget income has been practically stable at 21% of GDP, but the expense has a growing trend
Gerardo Esquivel, economist and former subgovernor of Banxico.
The structural drop in oil income and the increase in social programs have widen the fiscal gap, which makes it difficult for the single tax expansion to reverse the deficit.
The weight of the financial cost
The financial cost of debt also limits the margin of state maneuver. The increase in interest rates and the accumulation of liabilities make interest become a rigid and increasingly high expense.
This panorama led the former subgovernor to question the viability of the scenario raised in the Economic Package 2026 where a gradual containment of the deficit is expected. According to Esquivel, the projected adjustment rests on unrealistic cases, especially in terms of social spending and the stabilization of oil income.
Among the six -year period of Felipe Calderón, Enrique Peña Nieto and Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the historical balance of the public sector financial requirements increased between 7 and 8 points of GDP in each administration, that is, more than one percentage point per year.
In 2024 the deficit reached levels close to 5% of GDP, forced to raise an adjustment in the Economic Package 2026 . In contrast, during the six -year period of Vicente Fox, the debt was slightly reduced, said Esquivel.
In addition, he noted that to sustain the balances, the most visible adjustment in recent years has been on the side of physical public investment, today at precarious levels of 2.5% of GDP. Which entails low economic growth.
