The Bitcóin again captured the attention of the markets in recent days with a rebound that many wonder if it will be passenger or if, on the contrary, it can consolidate a new growth stage, after some falls That for analysts, they have been related to typical market movements.
According to Felipe Barragán, market research strategist in Pepperstone, The explanation to this behavior is not in the “mysterious psychology” of cryptoactives, but in a fairly earthly combination that goes through US politics, the direction of the dollar and the dynamics of ETFs.
See here: Why is Greca’s redness so expensive in Colombia?
The macroeconomic impulse
Barragán argues that the most famous cryptocurrency in the world is responding to an already known pattern in which when the dollar weakens, the bitcóin tends to find space to climb. In this case, the pressure came from a political front and is the possibility of a government closure in the United States, which generated fiscal uncertainty and weakened the US currency.
This digital currency has had a 2025 marked by an important solidity.
Chatgpt image
That scenario led investors to seek shelters and because of that, gold reached new records and, in parallel, assets considered alternatives such as the BTC took advantage of the situation, thus explaining that “the combination of a weaker dollar and a high political risk It is attracting capital to different assets, with value reserve narratives on the margin. ”
In other words, which weakened the strongest currency in the world opened the door for the bitcóin to wear, at least for a few days, with the active shelter suit.
It may interest you: The pension: What is happening with the pensions of Colombians?
Market mechanics
However, not everything is macroeconomics. According to Barragán, under the surface, the structure of the crypto market is providing its own; While derivatives remain the engine of negotiated volumes, which means that technical movements can be amplified rapidly.
When the operators were positioned down and a macroeconomic respite appeared Like the weak dollar, “forced rehedgeations” occurred. That is, technical adjustments that further pushed the price of the BTC in the spot market and that fuel was useful for the rebound, but the analyst warns that it does not constitute in itself a long -term thesis.
This digital currency has had a 2025 marked by an important solidity.
Chatgpt image
“The durability of this stage will depend on whether the flows are kept in the cash markets and not only in perpetual contracts,” he said. In other words, while the entry of fresh money is limited to derivatives, the movement will remain fragile.
ETF, a structural change
The third factor that Barragán stands out is of a political and regulatory nature, since the United States Stock Exchange and Securities Commission (SEC) decided to expedite the processes for the price of Cryptocurrencies in cash, especially those of Bitcóin and Ether. That decision already It resulted in a calendar of new products that will be released in October and November.
More information: ‘We have reached the balance in cash flow point’: Wom
That said, it should be noted that the effects of these vehicles can be deep, since on the one hand, they extend the distribution and base of buyers, allowing traditional investors to access cryptocurrencies in a regulated and simple way. In addition, if “in kind” mechanisms are consolidated, they will reduce follow -up frictions and give more solidity to net demand.
On the other hand, not everything is good news, since ETFs can also Becoming a rapid volatility transmission channel and if the appetite for risk is reduced, that capital output could immediately feel in the price of cryptocurrencies.
This digital currency has had a 2025 marked by an important solidity.
Chatgpt image
That is why for the Pepperstone strategist, the current rally could be transformed into a more stable trend only if three conditions are met, starting because the dollar maintains its weakness in the midst of the threat of closing of the US government, which the ETFs manage to really expand the base of buyers and that the tickets in cash confirm the movement.
But there are also clear risks and here Barragán warns that “if the closure with a stronger dollar is avoided than expected, or if the holders On the ETF they disappoint, the BTC climb runs the risk of falling back into the range. ”
Also read: PROye that adjusts methodology for calculating oil reserves arouses suspicion
For now, the path of less resistance seems to be inclined to rise; While the question is whether this rebound will be a simple respite or the beginning of a new chapter in the history of the digital currency. That is why the next sessions, marked by the flows to ETF and the price of the dollar, will have the last word.
Daniel Hernández Naranjo
Portfolio journalist
