The Colombian economy advances towards a silent but deep change in its growth engines. This was warned that there are still several challenges to overcome in terms of productive sectors that are in red.
According to this expert, although private consumption has been the main support of the gross domestic product (GDP) during the last quarters, in the coming months it will be the investment in housing and construction that assumes leadership, explaining that the adjustment It would be consolidated throughout 2026, configuring a new cycle for the national economy.
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First, the BBVA Research Center maintains a vision of moderate recovery, with an estimated growth of 2.5% by 2025 and 2.7% by 2026 and Téllez’s trial, it is an expansion “in line with the long -term potential” of the country, which places precisely in that range of 2.7%.
“While the figure may sound modest in front of bonanza times, it reflects that the Colombian productive apparatus is leaving behind the years of greatest contraction and relies on new levers to sustain its dynamism, ”he said.
The construction will be the protagonist of GDP in 2026.
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An economy that surprises up
In his talk with this medium, Tellez indicated that the recent behavior of the activity has been marked by positive surprises, as was the case of the Julio Economics monitoring index (ISE), which exceeded market expectations and ended up advancing 4%, when the projections pointed to 3%. For her, behind those results there is a consumption that has not lost vigor, a rebound in sales of durable goods and a better mood in investment in machinery and equipment.
“We are seeing clear signs that the economy behaves relatively well after very hard years,” said Juana Tellez, who added that even advanced indicators of BBVA Research, who monitor consumption data with information with information with information with information In real time, they show that in recent weeks a relevant dynamism persists.
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That impulse, however, will not last indefinitely, since it is noted that private consumption will remain important, but will yield space to investment as the main engine of growth; So new sectors will begin to be protagonists, while lines such as mining or hydrocarbon extraction, will take longer to recover.
The big bet is in construction, and in particular in the house. According to BBVA Research, The housing deficit is still wide, but the conditions that in recent years prevented many homes from accessing their own house, such as high inflation, excessive indebtedness or high interest rates, have begun to give in.
Juana Tellez, chief economist of the BBVA Research
Courtesy BBVA Research
“Today families are less indebted, they have already sanitized part of their obligations, receive higher real income and have the additional support of remittances,” Téllez explained. To this is added the rebound of sectors such as coffee, which has improved the purchase capacity in some regions and as a result, at this time there is a greater disposition to invest in housing.
In the same way, he said that “the evidence is already in the numbers. Construction licenses grew more than 40% in the last month measured, which anticipates a new building cycle. In addition, the available housing inventory is in minimal, especially in segments other than social interest, which generates pressure on leases and opens space for new projects. ”
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This is why the expectation is that by the second half of 2026 this process translates into a broad jalonation of the economy, since the construction has a multiplier effect, since it demands industrial supplies, professional services, transport and intensive employment and in parallel, the investment in machinery and equipment will also maintain a good performance, reinforcing the transition towards a growth more supported by capital formation.
“Not all sectors move at the same rhythm. Agro, commerce and industry are emerging as winners of the new cycle, favored by domestic demand and the rebound of investment. In contrast, mining and hydrocarbons will continue lagging behind, with difficulties to grow unless there are changes in the policy of incentives or clearer signals to attract capital, ”he said.
The construction will be the protagonist of GDP in 2026.
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Meanwhile, the public administration will also play an important role and although the expense of the central government will be limited by the fiscal narrowness, the regional and local governments will have in 2026 a key year of execution, given the political cycle. This will promote investment in civil works and contribute to growth from the public front.
Labor market: shadow resilience
Employment has been another of the pillars of recovery and there, according to BBVA Research, the occupation grows to 3.3% per year and a slight improvement in formality is observed; While the unemployment rate has fallen, and real wages (inflation discounted) They show advances, which translates into greater purchasing power for formal workers.
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“However, informality persists as the great structural weakness. More than half of the occupied Colombians lack full social security, which limits productivity and hits the financing of health and pension systems. It is a ballast that we continue to drag,” Téllez summarized.
Tellez stressed that the increases in minimum wage in recent years also weigh On the balance, since although it has been possible to sustain the creation of positions, the rhythm could have been greater in the absence of those such strong increases and that is why, by 2026, the labor market will remain positive, but with signals of gradual slowdown.
Gender gaps are also persistent in the labor and informality market.
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A new cycle in progress
In this way, BBVA Research’s conclusion is clear and points to Colombia entering a phase where consumption will cease to be the only engine of growth and give prominence to investment in housing and construction. This transition, which already shows early signals, will be consolidated throughout 2026.
And although the panorama is not exempt from risks such as labor informality, tax restrictions and exchange volatility, the change in dynamics opens the possibility of that the country strengthens its productive capacity and feels more solid bases for the medium term.
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“It is an economy that behaves well and begins to diversify its engines,” Téllez concluded, adding that the challenge, as always, will be to sustain that dynamic in an uncertain global environment and with the limitations of public finances.
Daniel Hernández Naranjo
Portfolio journalist
