“The greatest uncertainty comes from the expected standards, the host register and the register of technological platforms, have not yet been enabled or have technical operation guidelines,” said Juan José López de Silanes, partner of the specialized office Basham and Correa.
Indefinition is that while the law requires registering each property with an individual folio and presenting semiannual reports about occupation and complaints, at the same time “there are no formats, transmission mechanisms or validation criteria.”
To this are added regulatory contradictions, because while the Civil Code prohibits contracts smaller than one year, the Tourism Law limits the 50% annual tourist occupation. “This presents a dilemma for the owners; lease in a traditional way for one year or accept that half of the year the property cannot be occupied,” warns the lawyer, which impacts the planning of real estate portfolios and subtracts competitiveness.
Risks to collection in 2026
The lack of certainty is reflected in investment decisions, such as postponed remodels, postponed purchases and operations that are not formalized. But also threatens fiscal income. Currently, temporary accommodation platforms are taxed with a rate of 5% lodging tax (ISH), compared to 3.5% of hotels. If occupation stops and amparos reduce the supply of tourist income, a part of the demand would migrate to hotels, with lower tax burden.
“If the demand moves towards the hotel, a part of the consumption will go from 5% taxable to pay only 3.5%. The result would be a net decrease in ISH revenues, even if the hotel occupancy increases increases,” explained Basham’s specialist. A scenario that becomes relevant in the 2026 World Cup prelude, when the CDMX expects an avalanche of tourists.
The Basham and Correa specialist also warns that regulatory uncertainty not only increases costs for the end user, but can also stop alternative tourism – educational, educational, cultural or well -being -, sectors where short -stay income usually offers more accessible and adapted options for prolonged stays.
Housing, Speculation and Tax Justice
From the CIEP, the researcher Emilio Sánchez proposes to look beyond the short fiscal term and assess that the regulation also seeks to improve the conditions of access to housing in the capital, in an environment dominated by real estate speculation.
“Housing at the end is a right, and what we see is that it is being used as a means of financial speculation.” Between 2020 and 2025, the median value of housing in Mexico grew 42.2%, from 841,787 to 1,197,273 pesos, exemplifies.
For Sánchez, this increase shows how the benefits of short -stay income are concentrated on investors and expel those who work in the center towards peripheries with journeys of more than two hours.
The specialist proposes that the taxes generated by this sector – from the ISH to the property, the acquisition of real estate and the collection of surplus value – have a clear destination.
“They could be used to redistribute them and guarantee the right to housing, for example, supporting the construction of social housing,” he says. He cites the case of Guanajuato, which allocates the tax on digital platforms of lodging to tourism funds as an example that “the expense can be labeled for specific purposes.”
Although he acknowledges that taxes are usually unpopular, Sánchez insists that they are necessary: ”If we want to have more resources to guarantee rights, we have to think about implementing measures especially for the people who have the most, which in many cases use their secondary homes only as an additional income.”
Lack of data to know the collection value
López de Silanos explains that there is no detailed information on how much the short stay platforms contribute, such as Airbnb, in collection terms. In accordance with the January 2025 Statistine Bulletin of the Ministry of Tourism, in 2024 the hotels in Mexico City received more than 14.8 million tourists that generated an expense exceeding 141,375 million pesos, although it is not specified if these expenses only include lodging or other hotels travel expenses.
Additionally, in accordance with the Income Law of Mexico City for Fiscal Year 2025 it is estimated that the CDMX government will receive more than 937 million pesos for lodging tax (ISH) in 2025. In the case of non -hotel accommodations, although they are subject to a higher rate (5% ISH), there are no official figures disaggregated on the exact amount collected in this segment.
A 2026 World Cup, with incentives?
Looking ahead to the 2026 World Cup, which will have the CDMX as one of its flagship headquarters, López de Silanes warns that it would be difficult to justify a temporary exception regime in collecting terms, since it only proceeds in cases of national security or public interest; In addition, as long as the sponsorships of hosts and platforms are not activated, the reform is not fully enforceable, although caps such as 50% per year could be applied immediately.
For his part, Emilio Sánchez Matizes that more flexible rules for the event can be counterproductive since “these incentives, even if they are temporary, can aggravate the housing crisis if they are not designed with criteria of fiscal justice and redistribution.”
