The Central Bank (BC) released, on Thursday (25), the projection of 1.5% growth for Gross Domestic Product (GDP – sum of all the final goods and services produced by a country, state or city) in 2026. The institution also revised the projection to 2025, from a growth from 2.1% to 2% at the end of this year. The data are part of the monetary policy report for the third quarter of 2025.
THE report It presents the policies guidelines adopted by the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) and evaluates recent evolution and the perspectives of the economy, especially inflation projections.
The BC states that it maintains the expectation of continuity of moderate economic activity throughout the second half of 2025 and that this trend should extend to 2026. Because of factors such as the still uncertain effects, the increase in importing imports, but also more favorable prognosis for agriculture and the extractive industry, the BC revised the growth projection of 2.1% of GDP presented in the last report from June to 2% in 2025.
Already For 2026, the expectation is to maintain monetary policy in the restrictive field and low level of idleness of the factors of production, the slowdown of the global economy and the absence of the agricultural impulse observed in 2025. Because of these factors, the growth should be lower than this year, reaching 1.5%.
>> Follow the channel of Brazil agency on WhatsApp
Inflation
The BC points out that Inflation in Brazil follows above the goal and that this scenario should be maintained, according to the Focus survey, both in 2025 and 2026, when it should arrive, respectively, 4.8% and 4.3%.
The projection released in the monetary policy report is that only in the first quarter of 2027, it approaches the center of the goal, reaching 3.4%. THE Goal set by the National Monetary Council (CNM) is 3%, with a tolerance interval of 1.5 percentage points and plus 1.5 percentage point, that is, from 1.5%to 4.5%.
Credit
THE Projection for credit balance offered to both individuals and companies by 2025 increased, according to the report, from 8.5% to 8.8%. This increase is mainly pulled by the expected performance of credit directed to companies. By 2026, the growth of this balance should be lower, 8%, with a reduction in growth of both individuals and legal entities.
Job
Another highlight of the report is the job. The analysis shows that the labor market is still warm and the vacancy rate in recent months has been lower than expected by the institution. THE Unemployment rate in August was 4.3%. In the BC analysis, still historically low and close to the oscillation range of the last twelve months and the estimated equilibrium level.
According to the report, the generation of jobs with wallet has slowed, but remains strong. According to data from the new General Register of Employees and Unemployed (New Caged), that BC, an average of 113,000 jobs per month in the May-Julho quarter, below an average of 165,000 verified in the previous quarter. The deceleration was more significant in construction and in the transformation industry.
The BC states, however, that despite the cooling in the last quarter, the net generation of jobs remains at historically high level: the year until July reached 1.34 million, only 148,000 posts below the same period as 2024.
The average income from work measured by the National Household Sample Survey – Continuous PNAD maintains high growth in real terms. In the quarter ended in July, the variation accelerated to 1%, compared to 0.6% in the previous quarter, driven by gains between informal workers.
Central Bank performance
Given the indicators presented, the President of the Central Bank, Gabriel Galipolo, evaluates that the monetary policy conducted by the institution is on the way “that must be done”as stated at a press conference after the report of the report, late in the morning of Thursday.
“We have been renewing the minimum about unemployment, in a successive way. The work market has been showing a lot of resilience, with unemployment at the historical minimum and income at the historic maxim,” says the president.
He adds: “For us, the worst scenario for the worker, the one with the highest fall in labor income, is when we have a high inflation. So it is important that this good performance that has been seen in the last years of economic activity and the labor market is preserved the worker’s income. How do you preserve the income of the worker? people.”
With the argument, Galipolo defended Copom’s decision to maintain Basic Economy Interest Rate (Selic) at 15%. The rate is considered high by the government. THE Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddadexpects the scenario to be better in 2026 and that there may be a drop in the rate.
Selic is the main instrument of the Central Bank to reach the inflation target. When the copom increases the basic interest rate, the purpose is to contain the impulse that heated demand causes in price increases. The highest interest rates make credit more expensive and stimulate savings, braking economic activity. When the Selic rate is reduced, credit is tendency to be cheaper, with incentive to production and consumption, reducing control over inflation and stimulating economic activity.
“The role of the central banker is a little harder than other municipalities and secretariats, because sometimes he has to displease a little, right?”, Commented Galipolo, who stressed that employment indicators and salary stress that BC’s performance has been right: “It gives more conviction that the way is the same and what should be done.”
