The Congress of the Republic has already made the first key decision on the public finances of next year, after this week, in a joint session of the economic commissions, the general budget of the Nation (PGN) for 2026 was approved in the first debate, but with a background adjustment in which the amount was at $ 546 billion, that is, $ 10 billion less than the government had initially requested.
With this cut, not only the expense roof is redefined, but also the Ministry of Finance is obliged to recalibrate the current tax reform and therefore, the original project that sought to raise $ 26.3 billion, now the missing is reduced to $ 16.3 billion. In other words, the tax must be smaller, although still necessary to close the gap between income and expenses.
See here: PGN 2026: What was approved in the alternative presentation and what comes now
A short -term change
For Mauricio Salazar, director of the Fiscal Observatory of the Javeriana University, the adjustment partially changes the panorama, but does not solve the structural problem since, “what we have today is just a first approved debate. There are still three more debates and only until October 20 we will know if that cut of 10 billion is maintained. Meanwhilethe Ministry of Finance already has to start thinking about a new text for the Financing Law. ”
Salazar warns that this type of adjustments are a relief in the paper, but they depend on what happens in Congress in the coming weeks and made it clear that if it is not possible to approve in all debates, the government has the option of carrying out the budget by decree, with the initial amount of $ 557 billion, adding that “in that scenario, the tax would have to be again $ 26.3 billion, because the fiscal hole would be greater”.
The Petro government seeks to cover the hole in spending accounts with this reform.
Chatgpt image
The possible cuts
Beyond political times, the big question is where they will cut The resources of the tax reform. According to the Fiscal Observatory, there are already clear signs of where the adjustments could be directed.
More information: Minimum wage: the table would start fractured between distrust and tensions
On the one hand, the government has talked about limiting the scope of taxes to hydrocarbons, liquors and tobacco; Two sectors with strong political and economic impact, but had been identified as main sources of income.
On the other hand, Salazar puts the magnifying glass on the consumption tax, included in the initial proposal. According to the academic, this tax presented a technical error of origin, noting that “an instrument that was for income was used of the nation to modify territorial income. That would not endure a constitutionality analysis. ”
The Petro government seeks to cover the hole in spending accounts with this reform.
Chatgpt image
If this reading is confirmed, the consumption tax would have to leave the final text of the reform, automatically reducing the collection capacity.
The director of the Fiscal Observatory also stressed that the scenario is still uncertainsince the Tax, already cut in theory at $ 16.9 billion, does not yet have a definitive design. And if Congress does not approve the cut to PGN in the remaining three debates, the government would have to return to the original plan, with a larger tax.
It may interest you: Third Petro Tax Reform will be $ 16.9 billion
“We are in the hands of what happens from here to October 20,” Salazar insisted, for whom “that day we will know if the adjustment of $ 10 billion is consolidated or if we return to a greater budget that would force an additional tax effort.”
A political and technical discussion
In this way, the discussion about the budget and tax reform is not limited to figures; It reflects the tension between the political and the technical in the definition of public finances. While the government seeks to maintain its social spending and investment plan, The Congress presses to reduce the amounts and questions the real capacity of collection.
The Petro government seeks to cover the hole in spending accounts with this reform.
Chatgpt image
At that intersection of interests, analysts warn that any decision has long -term consequences and that a reduced tax reform can be politically more viable, but could leave insufficient resources to cover all obligations; while a more ambitious could collide with the resistance of economic sectors and legislative majorities.
Daniel Hernández Naranjo
Portfolio journalist
