The economist, who is preparing to leave his position after being appointed governor of the Bank of Portugal, also observes that the impact of tariffs imposed by the United States to his partners “takes” to materialize in world growth.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, based in Paris, reviewed its forecasts on Tuesday 3.2% global growth in 2025 although he warned that several deceleration signs are already present.
ASK: By increasing its world growth forecast by 2025, does the OECD show less pessimism about the effect of US tariffs on the economy?
ANSWER: The impact of tariffs takes longer to feel in the economy, in part because many companies in numerous countries anticipated these tariffs before entry into force. They decided to act and export to the United States and other countries to avoid these tariffs.
That said, we see less growth and higher inflation than expected.
Generally, when the economy goes very well, growth is usually around 4%, so we are far from that.
P: With restrictions in Visas in the technological sector In the United States, Donald Trump maintains pressure on immigrants. Is this a threat to the US economy?
A: Continuing to attract highly qualified people from the United States or around the world is a crucial advantage for the US economy, and this will intensify with the rise of artificial intelligence, since there is fundamentally an important shortage of labor in the technological sector.
The United States and Germany are the two OECD countries experienced by the greatest labor shortcomings in these sectors.
Obviously, there is already less growth in labor, which will obviously have an impact on GDP. We have not integrated into our forecasts the last changes that occurred only two or three days ago.
