The consumption of Brazilian families increased by 1.23% in January compared to the same month in 2021, according to a survey released today (12) by the Brazilian Association of Supermarkets (Abras). In relation to December 2021, the National Consumption Index in Brazilian Homes fell by 21.22%.
For the Administrative and Institutional Vice President of Abras, Marcio Milan, the growth below expectations for the year in the first month is due to the difference in the scenario. He recalls that at the beginning of 2021, due to restrictions to contain the covid-19 pandemic, supermarkets represented few forms of purchase for various types of products. “Consumers could only get supplies by going to the supermarket”, he emphasized. In January last year, consumption was up 12%.
conflict in ukraine
In 2022, Abras estimates that household consumption will grow by 2.8%. Milan considers, however, that the war in Ukraine brings uncertainties. “We believe in a negotiation, that this path of peace will arrive”, he says, commenting that, for the time being, forecasts are optimistic regarding the conflict in Eastern Europe.
At the moment, important products are already suffering the impacts of war. According to the Abras survey, wheat has already had a high of 46.2% on the Chicago Stock Exchange (USA). Corn increased by 11.9% and soybeans by 11%. These increases may, according to Milan, have an impact on prices in the coming months.
“These increases in production costs, resulting from increases in inputs in the domestic and foreign markets, added to factors such as fuel and energy prices, tend to be passed on to the consumer. Everything will depend on the levels of stock and the moment of purchases of each one”, he evaluated.
Inflation
Among the factors that should drive the increase in consumption this year, Milan highlights the improvement in employment levels and the Auxílio Brasil Program. The vice-president of Abras also expects that some categories of workers will be able to replace the wages of inflation losses. “Collective labor agreements will be incorporated throughout the year. Resetting inflation is something that is being discussed a lot,” he added.
The basket with the 35 most consumed products in supermarkets recorded a price increase of 11.5% in January compared to the same month in 2021. The biggest increases were for onions (12.4%), potatoes (9.6%). , tomato (6.2%) and ground coffee (4.7%).
The rise in prices has led, according to Milan, consumers to look for cheaper brands and products. “Consumers are adapting very quickly. He is seeing that to maintain consumption he had to change brands. We can see this in all the products that make up the basic food basket”, he analyzed. Beef, for example, has been replaced by eggs and chicken.
