All items designed by the Central Bank (BC) Focus Bulletin, which brings expectations from the financial market to 2025, presented stability in relation to projections released last week. The document It maintains at 4.83% the inflation projection for 2025 – index that is defined by the broad consumer price index (IPCA).
Four weeks ago, the country’s official inflation was projected at 4.86%, a percentage that drops to 4.29%, when designed for 2026, and to 3.90%to 2027.
In August, the country first registered, since August 2024, negative inflation (deflation of -0.11%), according to the Brazilian Institute of Statistical Geography (IBGE). As a result, financial market projections are closer to the upper ceiling (4.5%).
In the case of the National Consumer Price Index (INPC), the deflation was even higher, being -0.21%. Since August 2024, when the INPC was -0.14%, there was no deflation in this index. THE INPC calculates the country’s average inflation.
GDP
The projection of the financial market for Gross Domestic Product (GDP, the sum of all wealth produced in the country) is 2.16% – the same percentage estimated a week ago.
Four weeks ago, financial market expectations were that Brazilian GDP would close the year with a growth of 2.18%. For 2026 and 2027, expectations also remained stable at 1.80% and 1.90%, respectively, compared to last week.
Selic
To reach the inflation target, the Central Bank uses the basic interest rate – Selic.
For the 13th consecutive week, the Focus Bulletin maintains the projections of this rate by 15% per year, even percentage defined by the BC Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM). For subsequent years (2026 and 2027), the index is projected at 12.25%; and 10.50%, respectively.
Copom justified Selic’s maintenance by 15%due to the uncertainty of the external environment, “due to the conjuncture and economic policy in the United States.” According to the committee, the scenario requires caution “by emerging countries in an environment marked by geopolitical tension.”
The domestic scenario is also cited. For Copom, the indicators of economic activity present moderation in growth, despite the dynamism of the labor market. Inflation remains above the goal.
When the copom increases the basic interest rate, The purpose is to contain the heated demand, and this causes reflexes in prices because the highest interest rates make credit more expensive and stimulate savings.
Banks consider other factors, besides Selic, when defining the interest to be charged from consumers. Among them are risk of default, profit and administrative expenses.
Thus, higher rates can also make it difficult to expand the economy. When the Selic rate is reduced, the tendency is for credit to be cheaper, with incentive to production and consumption, reducing control over inflation and stimulating economic activity.
Dollar
With respect to the exchange rate, the Financial market maintained at R $ 5.50 the projection of the quotation, at the end of 2025. Four weeks ago, Focus estimated that the US currency would close the year quoted at $ 5.59%
For 2026 and 2027, market expectations are that the dollar close the year with the same quote: R $ 5.60.
Currently, the dollar price is $ 5.32.
