Mexico captured 24% of China’s loss in imports from products to the United States from 2018 to 2024, helped by its tariff advantage, highlighted the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP).
In 2024, Chinese exports of merchandise to the United States were 438,947 million dollars, which implies 66,650 million less than in 2017, according to data from the Department of Commerce.
Top, this advantage of Mexico over the tariff differential tends to reinforce its main competitors in the US market.
In the economic policy criteria, the SHCP considers that the current magnitude in the US tariff collection opens an even greater opportunity to expand exports, production and employment in the Mexican manufacturing sector.
In July 2025, the effective tariff rate for Mexico was 4.7%, one of the lowest among the members of the United States, compared to the world average (9.7%), the European Union (9.1%) and China (40.4 percent).
This result is due to the use of preferential levies from the northern country to Mexico: 76% of Mexican exports entered the United States free of tariff under the treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC) and additional 5% did so by other roads, so that 81% were exempt from levies.
“The tariff differential with other competitors reinforces this advantage. Regarding 2024, the effective rate increased 7.4 percentage points for the world and 29.5 percentage points for China, while for Mexico only 4.5 percentage points rose, which generated a relative advantage of 5.0 percentage points and 35.6 percentage points with the rest of the world and China, respectively,” said the SHCP.
From the perspective of the Ministry of Finance, the external sector of Mexico has shown resilience in 2025 and is consolidated as an engine of economic growth in the remainder of this year and in 2026.
“Despite an international environment with the greatest uncertainty due to changes in commercial policy, the country retains one of the most favorable positions in global trade and, in particular, with its main partners in North America,” the agency said as part of its parameters.
For the SHCP, this advantage is explained by four factors that are a low tariff rate against competitors, in addition to the preferential access of the T-MEC, together with the deep integration of exports into regional value chains and the flexibility of the exchange regime, which allows ordered adjustments and preserves the competitiveness of both.
“The recent experience shows that even minor differentials have had significant impacts: between 2018 and 2024, a margin of just 6.6 percentage points against China allowed Mexico to capture around 24% of the participation that this country lost in US imports,” he said.
Even under the statutory fee (the applicable legal maximum), Mexico remains competitive: it is the second partner with the lowest level among the ten main exporters to the United States, only after Ireland. This confirms that the Mexican advantage does not depend on junctures, but on an institutional framework that limits exposure to tariff increases.
Facing 2026, the review of the T-MEC will be decisive to consolidate a more predictable framework of regional trade and give greater certainty to companies, even in case of adjustments in the access and origin rules.
Clarity in these criteria will be key to strengthening investment plans and expanding productive chains with greater national content. In short, although the commercial environment is more complex than a year ago, Mexico retains a relative advantage over other partners.
In addition, according to the SHCP: “The low tariff rate, the strength of its manufacturing sectors and exchange flexibility reinforce its external competitiveness. The review of the T-MEC in 2026 will be an opportunity to consolidate this position and ensure that the external sector continues as one of the main engines of national growth and well-being.”
