The Brazilian real and the Colombian peso are two of the currencies that have appreciated the most frentity to the dollar this year, due to a combination of factors that include the departure of investors from Russia in search of other emerging markets, high oil prices and higher expectations of income from that and other basic goods.
(World stock markets fall and gold and gas soar due to crisis in Ukraine).
The Representative Market Rate (TRM) for this Thursday is $3,746.43, which represented a fall of $40.75. The currency opened at $3,750 and closed at $3,743, registering an average of $3,746.45 and presenting a high traded amount of US$1,551.07 million.
The price of the currency is the lowest since the end of June 2021and analysts say Brazil and Colombia offer an attractive mix of high yields and exposure to commodity prices and have been among the favorite destinations for investors fleeing Eastern European assets as the war between Russia and Ukraine.
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For Ana Vera, chief economist at Inon Capital, since January there has been a correlation between the DXY index (it measures the value of the US dollar in relation to a basket of six foreign currencies) and oil. The higher the price of crude oil, the higher the index and that is why the dollar weakens and in this sense some of the currencies of the region register a process of revaluation.
“This means that countries with reserves have more expectations of income in dollars.” He says that the euro has also been devalued and many resources migrate to countries in the region.
For the analyst, investors see the political risk in Colombia and Brazil, where this year there will be a change of presidents, but at this time those who manage the portfolios weigh more on the risk of war between Russia and Ukraine.
It raises is that it is necessary to be aware of if that dynamic of the currencies is still favoring or if with the elections the oil industry is punished. If those who win the elections favor the oil industry, the dollar will remain at its current level and on the contrary, they do not favor it, we will see that the currencies are going to devalue.
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