The rise in fuel prices on the US Gulf Coast —which has been observed since last December— increased its pace in the first days of March along with oil prices, after the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine.
This market is the reference taken by the Regulatory Unit for Energy and Water Services (Ursea) every month for the preparation of the Import Parity Price (PPI) report, which the Executive Branch then takes as an input to define the price of Ancap’s rates.
Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) updated to Monday, March 7, show that in the first 10 days from the validity of the new measurement window –began on February 26 and ends on March 25– prices continued to rise and had significant variations.
For the comparison of Uruguayan naphtha, the average value per gallon has so far been US$ 3,118, with an increase of 18.5% compared to the immediately previous month. For Super 95 gasoline, the most consumed in the country, Ursea takes the average international price of two types of gasoline: CBOB Regular 87 and CBOB Premium 93.
Diesel, for its part, has as a reference the price of Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel (ULSD 62). The closest possible update to what the PPI would indicate is 26% above the previous measurement. The average price per gallon was US$3,517, according to data processed by The Observer.
The next rate update in Uruguay is scheduled for April, after the last correction registered at the beginning of the month with increases of 2% in all the fuels that Ancap sells.
perspectives
Oil increases are expected boost the average price of gasoline in the US to US$ 4.1 per gallon during the second quarter of the year, with which would break the $4 barrier for the first time since July 2008. For diesel, prices would average US$4.43 in the second quarter of the year, explains a report published this Wednesday by the EIA.
The short-term energy outlook is subject to “elevated levels of uncertainty” on the potential for oil supply disruptions linked to the conflict in Ukraine, OPEC+ production decisions and the speed at which US oil and natural gas producers ramp up drilling, the report said.
In February, spot prices for Brent crude oil averaged US$97 per barrel, and US$124 in the first week of March. Average values of US$ 117 are expected for this month, for the second quarter of US$116, and US$102 for the second half of 2022, according to the EIA.
However, the report warns that this price forecast “is highly uncertain” and the “actual results” will depend on the degree to which existing sanctions imposed on Russia, any possible future sanctions and independent corporate actions, affect oil production. of this country or its oil sales in the global market.
“In addition, the degree to which other oil producers respond to current prices, as well as the effects that macroeconomic developments may have on global oil demand, will be important to oil price formation in the coming months,” he says. The report.
Crude took a breather in the markets
This Wednesday the price of Brent crude oil for delivery in May closed at US$ 111, down 13% compared to the previous session. The decline occurred after a gesture of diplomatic opening by the Ukrainian president, Volodimir Zelenski, and the decision of the United Arab Emirates to increase its crude oil production. Zelensky said in an interview broadcast by the American channel ABC that he no longer insists that Ukraine join NATO, one of the issues used by Russia to invade his country, AFP reported.
