In the latest national Ipsos survey for Peru21, Rafael López Aliaga (10%) and Keiko Fujimori (8%) continue to lead the list of candidates for the Presidency of the Republic with the greatest intention of vote. However, there are slight moves on the board. One of them is the relocation to a third place of Mario Vizcarra, brother of former president Martín Vizcarra. On that subject, the director of Ipsos opinion studies, Guillermo Loli, warned that there would be a confusion among the electorate. The experience, he says, shows that there is no end of votes.
What reflects this latest Ipsos survey?
It is a rural urban survey in which this trend of López Aliaga and Fujimori is still maintained within the great dispersion between the people, which opts for one of the 39 alternatives that appear on the card. They are minimal variations. There are also a lot of people who do not have a formed opinion, we are seven months after the election so nothing can be concluded, the panorama is still uncertain and will obviously go, presenting changes.
There are candidates like Alfonso López Chau who had 3% in August and has dropped to 2% and Carlos Álvarez who was in third place lowers the room. George Forsyth also leaves the other item and has 2%.
This comes and goes, as they say colloquially. There is nothing blunt. Statistically it could be said that the tendency of a great draw is maintained in the third or fourth place; There are also about five or six candidates who have 2%, could statistically, by the margin of error, be closer to third place. Everything is very tight, everything is very scattered with these candidates who are appearing in this measurement. There is still no statistical forcefulness in what we are seeing.
Rafael López Aliaga still has Lima’s main electoral bag where he has a 19% support, but only 6% inside. In the case of Fujimori, support is a bit more even with 8% both in Lima and within the country.
That is a limitation that we consider has the mayor of Lima in his intention to vote and is something that is ratified. The mayor’s intention, at this time, is mainly Lima, is something we have already seen in previous elections and so far does not make the jump. There is no mayor of Lima who has managed to make the national leap. There are still months to work.
In the case of Mario Vizcarra, Martin Vizcarra’s brother, it is positioned in third place with 5% in the general list, but 71% of respondents say that he would vote for him in the belief that they do so in favor of the former president. There is a vote distortion in that case.
Indeed, people are referring to former Vizcarra president, there may be people who are confused, so it is important to continue investigating, we will do it in the next measurements. I think there is an electorate who is referring to former Vizcarra president, who can have confusion when seeing the card and is not necessarily voting for Mario Vizcarra but believes that he is voting for the former president.
That 5%, then, would not correspond to reality in terms of voting intention.
Yes, I believe that it is still part of this need to continue informing, obviously some consider that the numbers that are presented can still be premature, but somehow they already mark a trend.
Does the fact that Martín Vizcarra continue to present publicly with the logo of his party contributes to this confusion and traveling to provinces knowing that he cannot be a candidate because he has been disabled to hold public office for 10 years?
In the light of that result, an explanation could be found there. Clearly continues to proselytize, despite the prohibition he has, of disqualification, so we do not put it on the card. (…) There is no end of votes. In so many years that we do surveys, very popular leaders such as Alberto Fujimori, which was very popular at the time in a population sector, could not endorse votes. There is no leader, however popular, that he could endorse votes. Clearly (Martín Vizcarra) can continue playing confusion, he can continue playing to believe that he is the one who is candidating and there will be an uninformed sector that could remain confused. Let’s see, I think it is part of what will be seen in the coming months, in the next elections.
