Colombia’s decertification in the fight against drug trafficking by the United States opened a debate that goes beyond anti -drug policy and goes to the immediate economic future of the country, since although the White House gave a WAIVER that for now avoids automatic sanctions, an analysis of the University of San Buenaventura warns that, if lost, the implications would be millionaire.
Basically, if this exemption falls, the cost could amount to US $ 4,000 million in losses and the most exposed sectors would be foreign investment, tourism, exports and international cooperation, with a multiplier effect on employment, credit and trust.
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The report, led by Julio Enrique Duarte, dean of the Faculty of Economic Sciences And administrative, argues that the signal sent by Washington already deteriorates the country’s reputation against investors, multilateral organizations and commercial partners and warns that “this is not a distant risk. If Colombia does not act quickly, the impact could feel in the pocket of millions of people.”
Investment in vilo
Foreign direct investment is the first alert front, since during the first semester of 2025, Colombia caught US $ 4,840 million, a 24% drop compared to the same period of 2024 and according to Duarte, the decertification could deepen this trend, braking projects in energy, infrastructure and industry, especially in departments such as Cundinamarca, Valle del Cauca and Atlantic.
Desertification would play against the country’s economic rhythm.
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For them, the deterioration of trust is the key factor, pointing out that “when a country loses credibility, money becomes more scarce and more expensive” and that this dynamic, in addition to impacting the arrival of fresh capital, makes financing more expensive For companies already installed in the country, which could rethink expansions or even reduce operations.
The second front is the financial, especially when the country risk premium has already reached 849 basic points, a level that makes access to international credit more expensive and if the waiver disappears and uncertainty increases, so, for example, a jump of 100 basic points on an emission of US $ 5,000 million would mean a millionaire extraction.
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“This coup would not fall only into the government. Companies with debts in dollars, The regions that finance infrastructure through external credits and even SMEs with international obligations would have to pay more for their loans. In a low growth context, the effect could be lethal for the recovery of investment and employment, ”said Duarte.
The social impact
Tourism, one of the recent engines of the economy, would also be in check. In the first quarter of 2025 it generated US $ 2,864 million in currencies, an increase of 12.9% compared to the previous year. However, if the United States emits travel alerts or increases aerial restrictions, international arrivals could fall between 30% and 35%.
Desertification would play against the country’s economic rhythm.
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This would imply losses of US $ 800 to US $ 1 billion, With a direct impact on regions that depend on the sector, such as the Caribbean, Antioquia and the Coffee Axis.
Likewise, exports to the United States, the main commercial partner of the country, already show weakness and in July 2025 added US $ 4,429.9 million FOB, 4.1% less than a year ago. With descertification, agriculture, manufacturing and logistics they would have to face additional restrictions, which could translate into losses of US $ 200 to US $ 500 million.
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Cooperation at risk
Finally, international aid is also at stake, since although for this yearThe United States had requested from Congress a package of US $ 413.3 million in cooperation with Colombia. If the waiver is lost, the cuts could range between 30 and 40%, that is, between US $ 124 and US $ 165 million less for social programs, safety and rural development.
“The historical precedent is not encouraging, in 1996, after the descrtification in the government of Ernesto Samper, the investment collapsed and international aid was significantly reduced. Today the scenario is more delicate, because the economy is more open and depends more on these flows to sustain growth,” he said.
Before September 25, the 2026 budget project must be voted.
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Thus, the country still has a reaction margin, but time is pressing, since complying with concrete goals against drug trafficking, diversifying international cooperation and sending signs of trust to investors It will cost hundreds of millions, but it is less onerous than losing thousands if the crisis scale.
“The clock already started to run. What is at stake is not only the relationship with the United States, but the employment, investment and pocket of millions of Colombians,” Duarte summarizes.
Daniel Hernández Naranjo
Portfolio journalist
