Again the economic rhythm of the country gave surprises, after the results of the DANE for the ISE of July showed that it is growing more strongly as projected by analysts, although with A growing debt in important lines such as agriculture, mining and real estate sector.
For the seventh month of the year, the monitoring indicator to the economy (ISE) It registered an annual variation of 4.3% in its original series, a fact that reflects a larger advance to the one observed in the same month of 2024, when it had grown 3.1%.
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In this way, once again the productive apparatus is moving with some more traction Amid a context still challenging, marked by the fragility of agriculture and mining, as well as the weakness of the real estate market.
Again pushes consumption
The DANE explained that this result was mainly promoted by the dynamism of tertiary activities, that is, those related to trade, transport, accommodation and food services, financial activities and public administration, health and education.
Julio’s ise surprised to be on the expected.
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Together, this large group of activities advanced 5.6% compared to July 2024, contributing most of the positive variation of the ISE. It is a behavior that ratifies services as the current engine of the Colombian economy, a role that have been consolidating throughout 2025 and that Explain a good part of the recovery compared to a weaker 2024.
Within this group, trade and transport were indisputable protagonists, since they reported an annual expansion of 6.7%, which shows an important rebound against the virtual stability that they had shown a year ago; While cargo and passenger transport, together with retail and wholesale trade, promoted growth that not only supports the aggregate indicator, but also reflects the effect of greater demand in homes and companies.
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Beside him, financial and insurance activities also stood out, growing 6.6% compared to July 2024; In the midst of a context in which consumer credit and banking services resumed dynamism, despite the fact that interest rates still remain at high levels.
César Pabón, Director of Economic Research of Corficolombiana, highlighted the result, noting that “economic activity (ISE) grew 4.1% in its desestationalized series, promoted by tertiary activities, particularly public administration and entertainment.”
Julio’s ise surprised to be on the expected.
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He also stressed that this advance is thanks to the advance of the “secondary activities, especially trade. Despite uncertainty and elements and elements Difficult to interpret, the economy undoubtedly maintains its reactivation path. ”
Similarly, the activities of public administration, health, education and recreation were not far behind and in July 7%grew, the highest rhythm within the services, and were decisive for the ISE to be located in positive terrain. The combination of these three services groups (trade and transport, financial, and public administration and education) added almost three percentage points to the total result, confirming that the weight of the Colombian economy remains concentrated in the tertiary sector.
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Meanwhile, Diego Montañez Herrera, an expert analyst at cost of living, highlighted the surpriseTo the positive of ISE and said that “in July, the economy grew 4.33% per year and accumulates 2.7% in the year.
Industry shakes
The behavior of secondary activities, related to industry and construction, also contributed positively to the general balance, after recovering 4.3% annual, which contrasts with the fall it had shown in the same month of the previous year.
Julio’s ise surprised to be on the expected.
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Thus, the manufacturing industry, which came from upperbags in previous months, showed signals of recovery, while the construction contributed with a better performance in civil works and buildings. Although its weight is less than services in the structure of the ISE, the rebound of industry and construction was decisive to reinforce The final figure and confirm that the economy does not depend solely on a sector to grow.
However, the panorama changes when looking at the primary activities, a group that includes agriculture, livestock, fishing and mining, and recorded a 1.6% drop compared to the same month of 2024; becoming the only great branch that was located in negative terrain, and with it becomes the most visible brake of the indicator.
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The recoil of agriculture and mining is not a minor fact if it is in mind that in July 2024 This group had grown more than 7% and now moves between persistent difficulties in agricultural and mining production, which failed to accompany the impulse of industry and services, and that highlight the heterogeneity of growth.
Luis Fernando Mejía, Executive Director of Fedesarrollo, said that in all this we must highlight “the dynamism of trade (6.6%), financial activities (6.3%) and industry and construction (4.1%). This last group, called secondary activities, registered its best performance since September 2022”.
Julio’s ise surprised to be on the expected.
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For Mejía, we must pay more attention to “the lunar remains the agricultural, mining and oil sector, which presented an annual 2%contraction. With these figures, the growth in the year It is 2.8%, slightly above the market expectation for the full year (2.6%) ”.
Higher than expected
What is reached in this report is not less if one takes into account that Corficolombiana projections pointed to a growth close to 3%, slightly above June, while Bancolombia coincided in a moderate rebound and now the economy surprised with 4.3% annual, widely exceeding the expectations of the analysts.
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However, the best performance of July does not erase latent riskstaking into account that mining remains weak, construction does not take off at all and agriculture shows vulnerability and that although trade and financial services are protagonists, the challenge will be to sustain the rhythm without depending only on some sectors.
Daniel Hernández Naranjo
Portfolio journalist
