Brazil projects a record for protein production in 2026, according to the prospects for Farming Farming 2025/26, a survey released on Thursday (18) by the National Supply Company (Conab). The country is expected to produce a total of 32.3 million tons of beef, pork and chicken.
If it is confirmed, the volume represents a new record in the company’s historical series, surpassing the current production estimate for this year of 32.1 million tons.
“The good result is influenced by the increase in pork and chicken production, which should reach approximately 5.8 million tons and 15.9 million tons, respectively, the largest volumes ever recorded by the state -owned company,” said Conab.
The survey designed Also record for the grain crop in cycle 2025/26.
Cycle Reversal
According to Conab, the flagship for this record in protein production were swine and chicken meats. The cattle, which was a record in 2024, with a total of 11 million tons, had its cycle reversal period started this year, which will result in slight retraction, with a production that is expected to be 10.9 million tons in the year and 10.6 million tons by 2026.
Cycle reversal is a transient market movement between the low and high pricing period, driven by the amount of females (cows) for slaughter and replacement calves.
Tariff
Conab’s fiber and food manager, Gabriel Correa, estimates that the effects of 50% tariff imposed by the United States against Brazilian products were smaller than expected.
We initially imagined that [o tarifaço] It could force the product to get more here inside the country, the effect was the opposite, since some of the main companies in the sector have operation in the United States, and could import and stock [nos EUA] High volumes before the fare comes into force, ”explained the manager.
In addition, according to Gabriel Correa, he had the China factor to favor the flow of protein produced in Brazil.
“China, which is already absorbing more than half of our meat, ended up taking much of this slice that the United States has stopped importing. The result is that we have been 2 or 3 months in a row beating export records,” he said.
Chicken
With international demand and the good rhythm of the domestic market, the expectation is for a good production of chicken meat, even with Brazil having recorded, in May, a case of avian flu, in Rio Grande do Sul.
Conab is expected to maintain the positive trajectory of exports by 2026, with the total shipped volume estimated at 5.4 million tons.
“Even with the increase in sales of chicken meat to the international market, internal availability should also register increase next year, and may reach 10.6 million tons, allowing per capita availability to be estimated at 51.1 pounds per inhabitant, ensuring internal supply,” said the company.
Similar scenario is observed for pork.
“Record production for this protein enables an increase in internal availability, projected at 4.3 million tons by 2026, as well as a new increase in exports,” says the survey.
According to Conab, good external performance is driven by the competitiveness of the Brazilian product, and also favored by the “consistent demand” of new Asian markets, given the decrease in Chinese demand.
“Philippines stand out [que ultrapassou a China como maior comprador]Japan, South Korea and Singapore. With this, foreign sales should reach a new record, exceeding the 1.5 million tonne mark, resulting from the continuity of Asian demand, ”the company said.
