The decision of the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) to maintain the basic interest rate Economy (Selic) at 15% per year It generated different reactions of economists, trade unions and business entities.
Selic’s announcement on Wednesday (17) was accompanied by the justifications of the copom that there is uncertainty in the external environment, “due to the conjuncture and economic policy in the United States.” And that economic activity in the domestic scenario has “moderation in growth” and inflation remains above the goal.
Fecomerciosp
The Federation of Commerce of Goods, Services and Tourism of the State of São Paulo (Fecomerciosp) understands that maintaining the interest rate at 15% per year was a correct measure.
“Inflation of services follows well above healthy levels, such as the food group outside the home that, in the IBGE measurement scope, remains at 6% in the 12 -month accumulated. This means that demand remains high even with firmer monetary policy,” says the note.
CNI
THE National Confederation of Industry (CNI) said that the Copom’s decision is “unjustified”. For the entity, it is a demonstration of “excessively conservative posture” when there are favorable signs of the inflationary framework and intense challenge of economic activity.
CNI President Ricardo Alban argues that the Central Bank starts Selic’s cuts from the next Copom meeting in November.
“There is no sustainable growth with stratospheric interest. There is no innovation, reindustrialization, affordable credit. What exists is paralysis in productive investments with sequelae for the whole society. It has gone from the moment of a more favorable monetary policy. After all, why run the risk of making productive investment if it is possible to obtain, without effort, a real income of 10% per year by applying the financial market?”, Asks Alban.
Cut
THE Single Workers’ Central (CUT) understands that Selic in a “high level” impairs the population and does not effectively fight inflation.
“The Central Bank says it needs to maintain the interest rate high to control inflation, but this is not true for the types of inflation we face in Brazil. High interest maintains the country at the top of the world ranking of real interest rates and penalize the most expensive population, consumes less and sees companies reduce investments and jobs,” says CUT’s Contraf-Cut and vice president.
Walcir Previtale, Secretary of Contraf-CUT socioeconomic affairs, says the high interest rate policy increases the indebtedness of the population and compromises the income of the worker.
“Home or car financing becomes almost prohibitive, while stimulating families and productive sector consumption with fair interest credit is the way to control inflation without penalizing the people,” says Previtale.
Union force
In a post on social networks, Força Sindical understands that the maintenance of the rate shows that monetary policy “continues to bow to speculators, to the detriment of the productive sector, which generates jobs and income”.
“The basic interest rate, currently at 15% per year, is strangling the economy, consumption and impairing the second half salary campaigns. We urgently need interest reduction for economic activity to strengthen again. Continuing the current interest rate imposes a strong obstacle to Brazil’s development,” the statement says.
Economists
According to the teacher of economics at the Brazilian Capital Market Institute (IBMEC), Gilberto Braga, the Selic maintenance was not a surprise and fulfilled market expectations.
“The IPCA, which is the inflation index measured in September, was a deflation, that is, a decrease in price, but this was not enough for the Copom to lower the Selic rate,” says Braga, adding that the fall is expected to occur from next year “if there is continuity of positive results in the fall economy by the end of the year.”
The chief economist of the Daycoval bank, Rafael Cardoso, analyzed that the Decision was cautious.
“The message was conservative, based on a diagnosis that makes some recognition of the improvement, but very light and with a lot of exception. In the end, the Central Bank sees this as an argument to reinforce the strategy and keep stable interest rates for prolonged period,” says Cardoso.
Pedro Rossi, vice president of the Global Fund for a new economy and professor at the University of Campinas (Unicamp), criticized the posture of the copom.
“Selic, 15%, hurts the Brazilian economy, which already has other brakes pulled as the inspector. From an international point of view, we are outlier [o que foge do padrão] And an improvement in the international scenario can make the exchange slip, due to the interest differential. On the one hand, this holds inflation, on the other, reduces competitiveness and increases the external deficit, ”says Rossi.
