Two studies launched This Tuesday (16) They argue that Petrobras is able to change the current course, focused on fossil fuels, and lead the energy transition in Brazil.
Produced by researchers at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) and the Climate Observatory, the Documents propose a map so that the largest company in the country ceases to depend on oil and consolidates itself as a reference in clean energy.
According to the researchers, the analysis occurs at a time when Brazil expands the production of oil and gas and sees oil to exceed soy as the main export product, representing 13% of sales abroad.
THE scenario increases the risk of being hit by the so -called “carbon bubble”with stranded actives if global demand for fossil fuels fall abruptly from the next decade.
The document Key questions and alternatives for decarbonization of Petrobras’s investment portfoliois signed by economists Carlos Eduardo Young and Helder Queiroz, from UFRJ. It is the basis for the production of the second study, Petrobras we needproduced by 30 organizations from the Climate Observatory Working Group.
Both argue that Petrobras diversifies its portfolio and align its investments with the goals of the Paris Agreement and the Climate Planwhich provide for the neutrality of greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. According to the numbers presented in the surveys, of the US $ 111 billion foreseen in the state’s 2025-2029 business plan, only US $ 9.1 billion are intended for low carbon energies. Petrobras said in a statement that investment in low carbon energy is higher than reported: $ 16.3 billion.
For UFRJ economists, the dependence on oil revenue exposes Brazil to economic shocks due to the volatility and finite character of the appeal.
“Petrobras, and the oil and natural gas sector as a whole, cannot be considered as mere solutions to solution to the macroeconomic problem that encompasses the tax issue in the country,” says Young.
“Despite the financial resources raised with royalties, taxes and other governmental appearances, it is important to recall the risk associated with the dependence on public (federal, state and municipal) administrations, as oil activity is characterized by the extraction of exhausted resources and whose prices are extremely volatile,” adds Queiroz.
Proposed Paths
The study conducted by the Climate Observatory suggests a set of measures for the company to go through the transformation process:
- Expand investments in biofuels research and low carbon hydrogen;
- Resume performance in distribution and recharge terminals for the end consumer;
- Prioritize low carbon energies such as green hydrogen, second and third generation biofuels and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF);
- Align the business plan with the most ambitious objectives of the Paris Agreement, the nationally determined contribution (NDC) of Brazil and the National Mitigation Strategy (Climate Plan);
- relocate refinery resources for the expansion of new fuels.
Climate Observatory researchers propose to freeze the expansion of fossil fuels extraction in new borders, such as the mouth of the Amazon. And guide the concentration of production in areas already in production, such as pre-salt.
“Petrobras is a very important company for the country, but it needs to internalize the climate crisis with much more vigor than it has done so far,” says Suely Araújo, coordinator of public policy at the Climate Observatory.
“Your business plan can and should be bold from the perspective of diversification of activities, especially investments in low carbon energies and energy transition.”
Future Beyond Oil
For economist Young, the Brazil will continue to need oil for some time, but the path should not be the expansion of commodity as an export leader.
“Petrobras I want is a public Petrobras, which achieves the goals of national development, which maintains an important activity, but without an expansion that aims to export and generate cash,” argues the economist.
“We need to increase investment in energy transition and also mitigation. A more active Petrobras in combating deforestation and also in climate adaptation,” he adds.
Petrobras positioning
The report of Brazil agency contacted Petrobras, so that the company would position itself on both studies.
In a statement, the oil company reports that it has raised investments in energy transition, with a destination of US $ 16.3 billion for low carbon projects in Plan 2025 to 2029, representing a 42% growth over the previous plan.
“The company invests strongly in innovative technologies, with short, medium and long term impact potential. Total investments of US $ 1.0 billion in P&D (research, development and innovation) in the quinquennium, starting from 15% of the total of P&D in 2025 and reaching 30% of the total in 2029,” says the note.
Petrobras also cites estimated resources of US $ 5.7 billion for low carbon energies (wind and solar photovoltaic, hydrogen and carbon capture, use and storage), and investment in bioproducts (US $ 4.3 billion), ethanol (US $ 2.2 billion), biorefine (US $ 1.5 billion), biodiesel and biomethane ($ 0.6 billion).
“To cope with commitments and challenges, Petrobras has Capex of US $ 5.3 billion on the PN 2025-2029 horizon to decarbonization of its operations, having as part of this budget a value of US $ 1.3 billion over the next 5 years to a dedicated decarbonization fund to leverage the implementation of business decarbonization opportunities. cross -sectional initiative involving all business areas of the company. The goal is to identify gee mitigation opportunities [Gases do Efeito Estufa]on its different fronts of action, using the Methodology of the Marginal Cost Curve (MACC) to map the opportunities of higher cost-effectiveness, “he says.
