The organic law clock marked a silent, but definitive mile With a total value of $ 557 billion, without a single weight in that first instance has been discussed or reduced.
According to analysts, this omission has political and fiscal consequences of great draft, since what is discussed from now on will not be whether the budget is $ 557 billion, $ 547 billion or $ 530 billion, as some sectors claimed, but if approved or refused in block.
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All this, while the new key date will be on September 25when the economic commissions must define whether the budget text advances towards the plenary or sinks in its entirety; While before that day, not only the negotiations between government and Congress will be intensified, but also the calculations around the possibility that, once again, the country ends under a “fiscal dictatorship” scenario, with the Executive issuing the expense plan by decree, as happened the previous year.
The government’s strategy is evident to several analysts and aims to bet that the majorities in Congress fail to conform, allow the process to wear down and finally open the door to a decreon. This path, although legal, mine the legitimacy of the process and reinforces the perception that the Executive prefers to avoid open debate on a fiscal plan that is full of tensions and limitations.
Before September 25, the 2026 budget project must be voted.
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Hidden costs
To this is added in the last hours a report from the San Buenaventura University that talks about a series of “hidden costs” that this project brings and that will have a very serious impact on the economy, both in the fiscal, and in the management of the debt, The dependence of a tax reform and in the little margin of maneuver that the next government will have.
The analysis, headed by Julio Enrique Duarte, dean of the Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, turns on several alarms on the sustainability of the expense plan, starting because 91.4% of the budget is already committed to pensions, health, transfers and salaries.
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“This means that only 8.6% is available for new investment, infrastructure works o Social programs, what in practice leaves without oxygen to the state’s ability to respond to new citizen demands or to promote strategic projects, ”he said.
To that structural rigidity is added a second factor and is the dependence of a tax reform of $ 26.3 billion; Since the 2026 budget only closes its accounts if Congress approves that initiative, something that at this point seems unlikely without substantive changes, taking into account factors such as the political environment on electoral eve, the resistance of the unions and the opposition pressure suggests that the final amount of collection will be less.
Before September 25, the 2026 budget project must be voted.
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Likewise, if the Tax does not collect what is expected, the options are reduced to two, which are cutting expenses or assume more debt and it is worth saying that none of those outputs is simple or popular.
“The third hidden cost is in the deficit that already drags the project. Even with the reform, a hole of $ 12 billion persists without a clear source of financing. That emptiness is a reminder that, beyond the speeches, the state accounts do not close and any scenario of lower collection will force more severe adjustments,” they added.
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The fourth critical element is the heavy burden of debt, since only in interest, The budget projects to allocate $ 70.7 billion, a figure that competes in magnitude with what the country spends in investment. This means that a good part of public resources do not finance new programs or support families or companies, but are destined to fulfill the accumulated debt commitments.
That said, it is not necessary to add that in a context of high interest rates, with the monetary policy of the Bank of the Republic still at 9.25%, this item will continue to press the fiscal space in the coming years.
Before September 25, the 2026 budget project must be voted.
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A traffic light
The University of San Buenaventura report raises three possible scenarios for national finances, which function as a warning traffic light, starting with the green, in which if the complete reform is approved, the deficit could lower to 3.5% of the GDP and the debt stabilize around 63%, which would give a break to the economy and It would allow energy and transport subsidies to remain without major adjustments.
In yellow, if the reform passes partially, the deficit would rise to 4.7% and the debt at 65%, which would force a cut of $ 13 billion, mainly affecting the investment in regional works, with a direct impact on employment under construction and in the dynamism of local economies.
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“The credits would continue expensive, with rates that would only slow down, and the subsidies They would have less fiscal space, with the risk of gradual increases in energy and gas tariffs, ”says the report.
In red, the most critical scenario is that if there is no reform, the deficit would exceed 5.5% of GDP and debt would approach 67%. In this case, the Government would be obliged to cut up to $ 26 billion or borrow more aggressively, which would have an immediate effect on everyday life: faster increases in gasoline, electricity or public transport, increase in consumer and mortgage loans, and lower regional investment with loss of jobs.
Before September 25, the 2026 budget project must be voted.
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“For families, the hidden costs of the budget are not abstract figures, but concrete risks. A cut of fuel subsidies, for example, could make the expenditure of a home that consumes 50 gallons per month beare in $ 20,000 per month. A half -point rise in interest rates would raise mortgage or consumption loans, ”the report highlights.
Thus, the 2026 budget becomes a battlefield where not only fiscal sustainability is played, but also the legitimacy of the democratic process; While the fact that it arrives at Congress for $ 557 billion, without prior debate, is a symptom of institutional fragility and government pressure strategy.
Daniel Hernández Naranjo
Portfolio journalist
