Brazilian government shares should halve the impact of the United States on the Brazilian economythis is what the macrofiscal bulletin posted on Thursday (11) by the Secretariat of Economic Policy (SPE) of the Ministry of Finance.
According to bulletin data, Tariffs to Brazilian products should lead to a 0.2 percentage point (PP) drop from gross domestic product. With the government response, the impact drops to 0.1 pp.
In the evaluated scenario, which covers 22 sectors of the economy, Without the measures of the federal government, the loss of jobs would be approximately 138 thousand jobsconcentrated in industry (71.5 thousand), services (51.8 thousand) and, to a lesser extent, in agriculture (14.7 thousand). With the adoption of measures, the loss will be 65,000 jobs.
On inflation, the expected impact is 0.1 pp SPE decreased from 4.9% to 4.8% the projection of inflation by the National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) to 2025.
As a result, the effects arising from the lowest trade balance balance are partially offset by the greater availability of products in the domestic market.
Estimates do not incorporate confidence shocks, increased financial volatility or deterioration of credit conditions. And take into account the application of the 50% rate to exports compared to reference scenario, with 10% rates.
Sovereign Brazil Plan
According to the Secretariat, the Brazil Sovereign Plan Allied to the postponement of tax payment by companies, maintenance of jobs and public purchases may contain the effects from the tariff.
The program offers credit lines of the export guarantee fund with more favorable conditions for exporters and micro, small and medium enterprises. The lines provide working capital to compensate for the fall with exports to the US and to stimulate the search for new markets, and capital for the acquisition of capital and investment goods, requiring in return job maintenance.
“Although tariffs have a relevant sectoral impact, they impact little on the aggregate of the economy, and even less when the compensations with the Sovereign Brasil Plan. Credit lines and the offer of tax guarantees and deferments, as well as government purchases, will assist investment in capital and productive innovation by producers and companies, facilitating the diversification of export destinations,” says the study.
Tariff
In July 2025, the United States announced 40% import tariff for some Brazilian products, in addition to the 10% rate announced in April. The measure has mainly reached non -metallic minerals, metal, machinery and equipment, electronics, furniture and agricultural products.
In 2024, Brazilian exports to the US totaled US $ 40.3 billion, equivalent to 12% of the total exported. Of this total, about US $ 16.4 billion now has 50%rates, according to government estimates. Many of the rates taxed are exported almost exclusively to the US market, suggesting relevant sectoral impacts.
