The amount of the country’s financial commitments is equivalent to twice the public spending that is expected for all 2026. It will also be 1.3 billion pesos, compared to the balance expected for the closing of 2025. Just at the end of 2017, the amount was for 10.03 billion, that is, that the historical balance will double in less than a decade, registers of the Secretariat of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP).
The full steam advance has its reasons: a public spending greater than income; mandatory expenses such as the payment of interest for this debt, pensions and transfers to the States; a decline of oil income; Staging tax revenues and continuous financial support from Pemex, refer to public finance specialists.
This encouraged the current government to put the goal of reducing the difference between spending and income covered with debt (deficit), that is, achieving fiscal consolidation. But the pressures to spending have put a brake on this goal. By 2025 it was planned to bring the deficit to 3.9% of GDP, but yesterday, in the economic package, the Treasury adjusted this goal to 4.3%, and by 2026 it left it at 4.1% of GDP.
“I think that the challenge of adjusting the deficit by 2025 was too large for the pressure in social spending and pension, also in 2025 the goal of oil production and oil collection has not been met. That is pressing the Treasury to exceed its projection of debt for this year, and although for the next one it will supposedly ask for less debt Economy, which is quite optimistic, ”said Jorge Cano, Coordinator of the Public Expenditure and Accountability Program of Mexico evaluates.
According to the proposal of Economic Package 2026 for the following year, GDP is expected to grow between 1.8 and 2.8%, when the consensus of private analysts estimates 1.3%, and Bank of Mexico 1.1%.
The implication of the growth of this debt is that, at the same time, it increases the cost for the service of this (interest) and that it must be paid year after year, generating a pressure for the distribution of public resources, which are concentrated in pensions, expense in social programs and transfers for the states, explained Ricardo Cantú, director of Research of the Center for Economic and Budget Research (CIEP).
For the following year, the financial cost of the debt is estimated at 1.3 billion pesos, which represents an increase of 9.3%, that is, above inflation, while budget income will grow 6.3%.
“This is something worrying because we are already at a level in which the financial cost of 1.3 billion pesos by 2026 is very close to the 1.5 billion estimated for the deficit (financial requirements of the public sector, RFSP), we are already at the point where what we borrow will be to pay the financial cost of the debt, that is, debt to pay debt,” said the specialist of Mexico.
Although the law says that the resources obtained by financing can be used to pay them or to restructure them, it also indicates that these must be destined for productive investment with the objective of energizing the economy.
“That is also a topic of great concern because we estimate that for each weight of indebtedness only 61 cents will go to investment projects, when the golden rule is that for each weight that enters debt, a weight for investment is destined. Since 2019 this metric is not met and again in 2026 it will not be fulfilled, which already tells us of 7 years continuous that we are not at a very sustainable level of debt,”
Under these considerations, it is very likely that the Treasury will continue with this goal of fiscal consolidation, but it will be slower throughout the present six -year term, the CIEP specialist considered.
Meanwhile, the Treasury projects that this deficit drops to 3% of GDP until 2028 to stay there until 2031.
