The debate on the General Budget of the Nation (PGN) for 2026, initially estimated at $ 557 billion, entered a new phase this week with an unexpected gesture from the Ministry of Finance, which before the joint economic commissions of the Senate and the Chamber, It would have opened the possibility of reducing between $ 3 billion and $ 6.9 billion the amount of the budget.
Although the figure is far from the $ 26 billion of adjustment demanded by legislators and analysts, the opening signal has generated expectations of a possible intermediate meeting point and to apply any of the two adjustments, the other year’s budget would be around between $ 550 and $ 557 billion; although everything depends on the approval of President Gustavo Petro.
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During the work tables, Minister Germán Ávila acknowledged that in recent dayscongressmen have received multiple requests to increase resources in some sectors, a message that reflects the political pressure surrounding the budget discussion.
At the same time, it made it clear that for the government it is not about two separate debates when talking about the amount of the 2026 budget and the new financing law, which for them are part of the same equation, in which the income projected through the tax must sustain the level of spending that is sought to be approved.
The Government has been talking to Congress for several days about the amount of PGN 2026.
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However, the minister sent an opening signal against the claims of the Legislative by stating that “an agreement must be made with Congress.” With this phrase, Ávila admitted that the Executive cannot unilaterally impose the amount of the budget and that the outcome will depend on the construction of a political consensus that approaches the positions, without ignoring the need to carry out the tax reform.
Thus, on September 10, when the PGN paper is officially located, this discussion is expected to define the definitive amount to initiate the legislative procedure; After several days of conversations between the congressmen of the Economic Commissions and the Team of the Ministry of Finance.
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Do not give tensions
With all the above, it must be said that the gesture of the Treasury has not been enough To calm the concerns in the Legislative, since during the work tables, several congressmen have questioned both the execution of ministries and the structural imbalance of the budget.
For example, representative Saray Robayo has been one of the most critical, remembering that entities such as the Ministry of Equality have barely executed 4.5% of their resources in 2025, which in her opinion reflects lack of management.
The Government has been talking to Congress for several days about the amount of PGN 2026.
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“It is not possible for every year to see that ministry leaves resources without execution. There are ministers who have not understood that their responsibility is to bring investment To the territories, ”said Robayo, who also made a strong call on tax sustainability.
For his part, the representative Wilmer Castellanos valued the provision to the dialogue of the minister, but warned that an inflated budget would be “a budget with enough doubts, with enough empty and without the possibility of rapid execution, especially taking into account that the government in 2026 will only have seven effective months of management”.
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Senator Sonia Bernal, in contrast, stressed that the government has not closed to the dialogue and that the final adjustment could depend on the ongoing tax reform and explained that “today no alternative figure is known to the initial amount, but on Wednesday we should already have a consensual presentation.”
Between ambition and prudence
Over time, the margin of government maneuver is narrow and although the initial offer of a $ 3 billion cut was interpreted as a political gesture rather than a substantive adjustment, the possibility that the adjustment scales up to $ 7 billion opens a negotiation space that, although it is far from the calculations of the congress and carf, can become the basis of an agreement to process the budget without major shocks.
The Government has been talking to Congress for several days about the amount of PGN 2026.
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Meanwhile, the background of the debate does not change, since while the Treasury is committed to ambitious tax reforms to finance spending, Congress and analysts insist that austerity must be the way. The discussion of the coming weeks will define to what extent the government is willing to adjust His accounts and how firm the position of the legislative is to impose deeper cuts.
Do not forget that the budget project, which amounts to $ 557 billion, represents an increase of $ 31 billion (5.9%) compared to 2025, and about 9% if the adjustment for the non -approval of the Financing Law of last year is incorporated, and is based on the most ambitious tax reform in history, with which the government expects to collect $ 26.3 billion (1.4% of GDP).
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Despite this fiscal effort, the accounts are still tension, since the total deficit is maintained In 6.2% of GDP, while the primary deficit, which measures the balance without including debt interest, went from 1.4% to 2% of GDP, reflecting an increase in primary expenditure for $ 18.2 billion.
As explained by the Ministry of Finance, this increase would be partially compensated by the fall projected in interest payments (-$ 10 billion) and for higher income derived from surpluses from public entities and the new tax. However, for experts such as Corficolombiana, the dynamic shows that austerity remains an increasingly distant path.
The Government has been talking to Congress for several days about the amount of PGN 2026.
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One of the most sensitive points is in the composition of the expense, since the same Corfi analysts point out that the operating spending is the main driver of the budget increase, with a 11.1% rise (+$ 36.5 billion), well above projected inflation of 5%.
With all of the above, the outcome of this fiscal pulse will mark the closure of the current government, since with a tax reform on the way, a increasing primary deficit and a suspended fiscal rule, the credibility of public accounts depends largely on the negotiation that is achieved on the budget.
Daniel Hernández Naranjo
Portfolio journalist
