Industrial production dropped 2.4% in January 2022 compared to the previous month, thus eliminating much of the 2.9% expansion in December 2021. As a result, the industry is 3.5% below the level of before the start of the covid-19 pandemic, in February 2020, and 19.8% below the record level reached in May 2011. Compared to January 2021, the drop was 7.2%.
The data are from the Monthly Industrial Survey, released today (9), in Rio de Janeiro, by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
“We found that the month of January is well characterized by a loss of dynamism and a widespread decline profile, since all major economic categories show a decline in production, both in comparison with the previous month and in comparison with January 2021”, said, in a note, the research manager, André Macedo.
According to him, the expansion seen in December 2021 may be related to the anticipation of production, because January is a month marked by collective vacations.
He noted that the negative behavior of the industrial sector registered in January is something that has been observed for a longer time, with the year 2021 having registered eight negative rates.
“Even in the accumulated indicator of the last 12 months, in which the industry continues to grow, with an expansion of 3.1%, the advances lose more and more intensity. In August 2021, the rate reached 7.2%. In September, it went to 6.5%, 5.7% in October, 5% in November and 3.9% in December,” said Macedo.
Most activities down
In comparison with December 2021, 20 of the 26 industrial activities surveyed had a drop in production. Compared to January 2021, 18 recorded a decline.
“The industry has been affected by the disarticulation of production chains due to the pandemic, with the increase in production costs and the difficulty in obtaining inputs and raw materials for the production of the final good, important characteristics of this process. In addition, rising interest rates and inflation, together with a still high number of workers outside the labor market, help to explain the negative behavior of the industry.”, assessed Macedo.
According to the IBGE, among activities, the most important negative influences from December 2021 to January 2022 were registered by motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-17.4%) and extractive industries (-5.2%). after accumulating expansion of 18.2% and 6% in the last two months of 2021, respectively. Compared to January 2021, these activities were the ones that most negatively impacted the general index, with a drop of 23.5% in the first and 6.7% in the second.
“The automotive vehicle segment is an important example of disarticulation in the production chain, since it has difficulties in obtaining important inputs for the production of the final good. The extractive sector, in January 2022, had the extraction of iron ore greatly affected by the rains in Minas Gerais”, said the research manager.
