After the adjustments, which will be presented on Monday at the Economic Package 2026 By the federal government to the Congress of the Union, there are the objectives of following the policy of Republican austerity and achieve the Fiscal consolidationwhich lies in reducing the difference between public spending and income (deficit), which is compensated with debt (financial requirements of the public sector, RFSP).
“Yes, the idea is not to increase the deficit, maintain a reasonable debt with respect to GDP, (which) today is in about 50%, one of the lowest in the OECD, it must be said. Maintain the republican austerity, which has marked the governments of the fourth transformation. Reduce any expense that is not, that is not directly related to the benefits for the people,” said the president of August 29.
The intention is reflected in the document prior to the economic package, known as economic precriterities, in which the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP), by Édgar Amador Zamora, stipulates the decrease in RFSP in a range of between 3.9 and 4.0% at the end of 2025 to a range of between 3.2 and 3.5% of GDP.
“The consolidation will follow, they will go down a little to the deficit, perhaps not as much as what they did or as they had planned, but will continue,” said José Luis Clavellina, director of Research at the Center for Economic and Budget Research (CIEP).
Banamex analysts foresee that the SHCP will project a broad public deficit (RFSP) of 3.2% of GDP, while they foresee it in 3.5% of GDP.
The goals for the deficit imply an estimated cut in 245.9 billion pesos (MDP), according to the Treasury, 73% will apply to transfers for states and municipalities (participations), the financial cost of the debt, and the debts of previous fiscal years (ADEFAS), which generally concentrate the backward payments to PEMEX suppliers.
Although the efforts in tax matters, especially for tariffs and taxes on foreign trade, can help reduce the deficit next year, and therefore avoid some cuts, “one of the great concerns towards 2026 is to continue, because it would seem that there are no longer many ways to continue cutting public spending,” said Cynthia Valeriano López, economy teacher at Tec de Tec de Tec de Monterrey Campus Toluca.
After the tax consolidation target, programs aimed at generating competencies or increasing productivity have been affected this year, since priority is given to social policy programs, “a social policy that continues to grow and generate pressure on spending,” said the academic.
Meanwhile, Banamex estimates that the cut to total public spending is 0.8 percentage points, something equivalent to about 40,720 million pesos, according to estimates of Expansion With farm data.
A cut of that magnitude would be affordable, this would be achieved at the expense of a lower public investment (since much of the rest of the expense is compromised), which will have negative repercussions on the economic growth of short and medium -term terms, the financial institution refers.
According to the academic of the Tec de Monterrey, the investment cuts are questionable, since this has a fundamental contribution in the growth of the economy, allows to establish direct alliances with the private initiative, to promote important employment conditions for the company, in addition to contributing to the increase in the income of citizens.
