In a report on the market, the firm Moody’sindicated that the credit quality of non -financial companies and infrastructure groups will be maintained in general in Colombia (Stable Baa3) until 2025-2026, but the political uncertainty It continues to represent a threat to the appetite of investors prior to the presidential elections of May 2026.
The Risks Commercial will not exert excessive pressure on the Colombian oil and gas industry, which is resorting to associations to address its predominantly mature reserves. Likewise, the credit environment is, in general, favorable for local and infrastructure companies before the elections.
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He flow free -added cash of companies and infrastructure will be slightly positive in 2026, with a slight decrease in Total debt and leverage.
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Colombia in 2025-2026 will exceed 2023-2024 levels, accompanied by a fall in the inflationbut that improvement depends partly on the trust of investors, which has decreased since 2023.
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The adjustment occurs just when the Mayor’s Office of Bogotá and the Government agreed to postpone the contributions for the remaining subway this year.
National Infrastructure Agency
Colombia’s oil and gas sector faces a difficult environment For investment in the face of policy uncertainty, the decrease in exploration activity, the maturation of reserves and the fall in capital investments.
Despite these problems, companies Petrolerasincluding Ecopetrol (Stable BA1), they are expanding their presence Geographic to diversify your risk. However, policy uncertainty hinders investment as the sector revolves towards natural gas.
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Infrastructure
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The evolution of the patterns of consumption It is reconfiguring the dynamics of credit in the solid consumer sector of Colombia. Efficiency initiatives, which include optimization of supply chains and digital tools, will help the processed food company Nutresa Group (Stable baa3) to expand their margins.
The consolidation and the search for higher scale are transforming the telecommunications sector, in particular the plan of Millicom International Cellular (Stable ba2) to merge your Colombian unit Tigo unites With Colombia Telecommunications. The airline Avianca Group International (positive B2) will continue to improve its fleet and expand its routes until 2026.
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Portfolio knew a draft decree to modify an article in Decree 1082 of 2015
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The delay in the payment of Subsidies to low customers income It generates risks on circulating capital in Colombia’s electricity and gas companies.
However, the government has begun to pay subsidies from 2024, which has helped those companies in public services to recover pending income. Inflation stabilization reduces the probabilities that the Colombian government interferes with the rate increases in toll road operators until the end of 2026.
A new law that increases transfers to local and regional governments (GLR), and encourages their autonomy, also includes new spending standards that could neutralize credit benefits.
