Gerónimo Ugarte Bedwell, chief economist of Valmex Casa de Bolsa, explained in a written interview that the recent dynamics of consumption in Mexico is based on two pillars: the withdrawal of savings in deposit accounts and the greatest use of credit to consumption.
“Households are allocating a growing proportion of their liquid balances to sustain spending levels, which reduces their resilience ability to negative clashes,” said Ugarte.
The specialist warned that, although consumer credit grows at rates between 8.5% and 9.5% per year, its high cost and its short deadlines make it risky.
“The combination of liquid savings and indebtedness generates an apparent solidity in the short term, but raises macroeconomic, financial and welfare risks of households,” he said.
According to the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) in its quarterly report from April to June, an unequal behavior is observed between the indicators that measure domestic demand. On the one hand, manufacturing sales, spending with credit and debit cards, as well as purchases in chains affiliated with Antad, showed increases.
In the April-June period of 2025 the salary mass showed a moderate setback. This contraction was the result of a decrease in real average remuneration
Banxico, quarterly report
In contrast, light cars sales continued in decline, the income of retail stores remained weak and The salary mass recorded a decline for minor real remunerationdespite the increase in the employed population.
The Central Bank said that, although private consumption in April-June was greater than that of the previous quarter, its determinants weakened. Since consumer trust was slightly reduced, remittances measured in real pesos fell due to the effect of the exchange rate, and consumer bank credit, although it maintains high growth, moderated against the dynamism of the late 2024.
This table reflects that household spending is more supported by immediate liquidity and short -term debt, factors that can amplify risks in a context of income pressed by the economic deceleration.
Private consumption maintains a moderate impulse, but with fragility. In June, it advanced 0.8% monthly after a fall of 0.9% in May, according to INEGI data, with a rebound in imported goods (4.9%), but stagnation in those of national origin and a slight decrease in services (-0.1%).
In addition, the fixed investment showed a mixed trend, with falls in machinery and domestic equipment for six consecutive months and a weak construction, which limits the productive capacity forward.
Consequences in the medium term
Gerónimo Ugarte warns that consumption based on liquid savings and consumer credit offers apparent solidity in the short term, but generates growing risks. At the macroeconomic level, because the expense is not supported in higher income and becomes less sustainable.
On the other hand, in the financial field, the risk is that the reduction of capture balances limits bank funding and an increase in delinquency would affect the profitability of banks and their ability to finance projects.
And, in terms of household welfare, because the greatest dependence on credit increases vulnerability and the risk of over -indebtedness to clashes in employment or income.
However, the delinquency index (IMOR) of the banking sector on credit cards in Mexico was 3.30% at the end of June 2025, a level that remains practically the same as a year earlier, according to data from the National Banking and Securities Commission.
