How long is there for Donald Trump to explode for the commercial surplus that Mexico has in front of the United States? The US president hates deficits. It considers that it is evidence that free trade does not work and that the world abuses the United States. To correct this “injustice”, he has put tariffs and has undertaken a overcoming campaign of promotion of Made in USA products. The strategy has dropped the deficit with Canada and China, but does not alter the trend of trade with Mexico.
Between January and July, the surplus in favor of Mexico reached 112,587 million dollars. This figure is 17.7% higher than that registered in the same 2024 period and is an absolute record. The surplus grows because Mexican exports continue to increase at a rate six times greater than the United States sales to Mexico.
In the first seven months of 2025, Mexico exported 309,719 million dollars to the United States, this is 6.5% more than in 2024. In those seven months, Mexican purchases from Uncle Sam were 197,161 million dollars. A growth of 1.1% compared to last year.
The gap grows despite Trump’s furious rhetoric and the imposition of protectionist measures. Since March there are 50% tariffs on Mexican steel and aluminum. In April, special rates were imposed on vehicles and auto parts equivalent to 13.9% of the value. In July a special tax of 17% was imposed on tomato and one of 50% for gross copper.
How to explain good numbers despite rates? Mexico has been less harmed by tariffs than other countries, argues the Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, and the data is proven, for the moment. More than 80% of binational trade is covered by the T-MEC, which means that the average tariff paid Mexican exports is less than 7%. To put this number in perspective, it must be taken into account that the average rate charged by the United States is 18.6%, the highest since the thirties of the last century.
In 2025, Mexico has consolidated its leadership as the main commercial partner of the United States. In the American shopping cake abroad, Mexico has a slice of 15.3%, while Canada stays with 13%and China sees reduce its portion to 7.8%, a participation that has been falling in the last five years as a result of the resort of the conflict between the two greatest economic powers in the world.
What follows? With full reason, we have put almost all reflectors in government to government and in Donald Trump’s plans to reorder the flows of global trade. That is the main clue and will continue to be, but this “circus” has other clues: it would be worth paying more attention to what companies are doing. What decisions are making investment and employment, but also of supply … who the factories buy the inputs; Where are the shops supply?
Mexico’s exports to the United States have grown 18.5 billion dollars in the first seven months of 2025. This is a feat that we must recognize thousands of companies, their entrepreneurs and workers. They have managed to break record in exceptionally difficult circumstances. They advance despite Trump’s threats, tariffs, insecurity and an exchange rate that does not help: the superweight or weak dollar is an additional ballast for exporters.
There are seven weeks left to finish the three -month break so as not to impose a 30% tariff on Mexican exports. Beyond issues related to safety and migration, there is the Mexican government’s commitment to eliminate more than 50 non -tariff barriers, among which there are issues related to customs, COFEPRIS, the energy sector and telecommunications, in addition to complaints about smuggling tolerance and piracy. Trump said it at the end of August. Yesterday Marco Rubio repeated it.
Not everything is related to the pause of tariffs. The United States has announced its intention to put rates for furniture and pharmaceutical exports. In 2026 we will fully enter the review of the T-MEC and we will have enormous pressure from the White House so that Mexico increases its purchases of American products. There will be no calm months, or Guadalupe-Reyes bridge that is worth.
