In the same scenario, some of the former farm ministers of the last two governments and several outstanding economic experts presented their formulas to avoid a fiscal collapse in Colombia, before the complex scenario through which the country is going through.
(Read: Proposals to avoid fiscal collapse in Colombia: experts discuss).
In the forum “Proposals to avoid fiscal collapse”which was summoned by the EIA University, in Medellín, the former officials presented their visions and approaches on the fiscal landscape and the exits to counteract an eventual deterioration of public finances.
Former government ministers as Diego Guevara, José Antonio Ocampo and Cecilia López They intervened in the conversation.
They were also invited Alberto Carrasquilla and headed the talk José Manuel Restrepoformer Government Minister Duke, and current rector of the EIA University.
Likewise, the President of the Anif Economic Studies Center, José Ignacio López, and the ex -director of the Bank of the Republic, Carolina Soto participated in the forum.
Adjust public spending
A common point to which all former ministers and experts arrived was in the need to adjust public spending as a way to face the fiscal crisis.
For Alberto Carrasquillaa reduction in expenditure by 4% of GDP is necessary.
For its part, to Carolina Sotothe adjustment should be 3% of GDP, a figure in which José Ignacio López agreed, which proposed to reduce spending between 3% and 3.5% of GDP.
(See: Analdex warns of tax reform and drop in exports, during his congress).
For its part, Diego Guevarawho did directed the Treasury portfolio of the current government, considers that the cut should be close to the $ 18 billion pesos.
Despite the different looks, they all converge in the same call to guarantee the sustainability of the country’s public finances.
José Manuel Restrepowho moderated with Andrés Mompotesdirector of El Tiempo, the conversation presented the magnitude of the fiscal challenge facing the country.
“The problem dimension is clear: the budget went from $ 350 billion in 2022 to $ 557 billion in 2026. Operating expenses are growing 74% in that period. We are overwhelmed in public spending matters”Restrepo said.
Among other proposals, in addition to reducing spending, experts agreed on the need to create a political agreement to find an exit to the crisis.
(Besides: The rules and taxes that would be without effect if the tax reform is approved).
Those who intervened in the forum reflected, in addition, the need to design economic policies that strengthen competitiveness and do not weaken the investment.
For Restrepo, The greatest tax burden proposed by the Government in the tax reform can drown the productive sector.
“When taxation rises and the combined socio -company rate is increased, the cost of capital is expected and negative effects on productivity are generated. These reforms, guided more for ideological reasons, end up affecting the country’s productive sector”said the rector of the EIA University.
Forum “Proposals to avoid fiscal collapse ‘.
Jaiver Nieto | Time
What brought us here?
During the forum, experts also referred to the causes led the economy to close last year with a 6.7% deficit of GDP, and that for this year, according to preliminary calculations, could reach 7.1%, after the activation of the exhaust clause of the fiscal rule.
According to Diego Guevara, the debt has risen in recent years due to factors such as the fall in oil prices, the Covid-19 pandemic and even of the “distorted” signals of the Petro government itself of the one who was part of important sectors for fiscal revenues such as the mining and energy mining sector.
However, he also highlighted some actions that he considers responsible to try to balance public finances.
“It is complex to look for a single responsibility for the current situation. For example, the cut of about 20 billion that was made in 2024 was a sample responsible with the box of that moment. Unfortunately this year that was not the scenario and that is why I am not in the government”said. And added: “There are some respectful differences with the president but I think today the box commands and that one of the important messages”.
(Here: Compensate enters prepaid medicine: What happened to your departure as EPS?).
For his part, José Antonio Ocampo, who was the first to lead the farm portfolio in the Petro government, said that the country’s fiscal situation responds to several problems that have accumulated in recent years. However, He stressed that the fundamental cause of the increase in deficit and debt has been the operating spending, which is 4 points of the GDP higher than what was in the decade before the pandemic.
“Even with the budget presented for 2026, the increase in operation expenditure is 5 points of GDP, that is, a brutal increase. This problem musthe said.
On the subsidy to gasoline and ACPM, Ocampo said that although a deficit was generated that was remedied over time, the president cannot continue to blame what happened in the previous administrations.
Former Carrasquilla Minister said that the country’s current fiscal situation also responds to a structural problem because the country constitutionalized public spending but income is in law.
“People complain that there are many tax reforms, but it is necessary to finance constitutionally defined expenses with resources with the take and give me from Congress every year, which has led to a structural fiscal problem and an absolutely crazy tax statute”he said.
Javier Acosta
Portfolio
