The Brazilian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) registered growth of 0.4% in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the first quarter of the year. With this result, GDP reached the largest level in the historical series, which began in 1996. 
Regarding the second quarter of 2024, the Brazilian economic activity was up 2.2%. NThe semester and accumulated in four quarters, GDP grew 2.5% and 3.2%, respectively.
The result of Gross Domestic Product (GDP, set of goods and services produced in the country) was released on the morning of Tuesday (2) by Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
According to the institute, the Brazilian GDP reaches R $ 3.2 trillion.
The positive variation in the quarter from the trimester is the 16th in a row, or since the second trimester of 2021 (-0.6%).
>> Follow the channel of Brazil agency on WhatsApp
Sectors
GDP can be calculated from the optics of production (analysis of the performance of economic activities) or consumption (spending and investments).
On the supply side, the expansions of services (0.6%) and industry (0.5%) compensated for the retreat of agriculture (-0.1%). Family consumption grew 0.5%, while government consumption fell by 0.6%, and investments had a loss of 2.2%.
The services and consumption of families reached record levels.
Compared to the second half of 2024, the up 2.2% increase was pulled by agriculture, which jumped 10.1%, driven by the productivity gain of some crop products.
Interest -brake
The result of 0.4% in the quarter is a slowdown, since in the first quarter, there was a high of 1.3%.
IBGE National Coordinator Rebeca Palis, the loss of growth pace was expected because of restrictive monetary policy, ie high interest rates.
“The activities of transformation and construction, which depend on credit, are more affected in this scenario,” she says, adding that the negative effects on the construction and production of capital goods [máquinas e equipamentos] help explain the drop in investments. “
The researcher explains that the service sector is less impacted by this restrictive policy.
“It was a disseminated high by the sector and pulled by financial, insurance and related activities; information and communication, driven by software development, and transportation, storage and mail, pulled by passenger transport,” he describes.
The escalation of interest began in September last year, when the basic rate (SELIC) left 10.5%per year and, gradually, reached the current 15%, the highest level since July 2006 (15.25%).
The SELIC rate is decided every 45 days by the Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM consists of the main way for the institution to do the inflation converge to the Government target – 3% per year with 1.5 percentage point tolerance to more or less. Since September 2024, the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) has been above the goal ceiling (4.5%).
One face of high interest rate is the contractionist effect, which fights inflation. Raising the rate makes loans more expensive – either for individuals or companies – and discourages investments, as it can be more worth keeping the money invested, yielding high interest rates than risking productive activities.
This set of effects brakes the economy. Hence comes the negative reflection: less activity tends to be synonymous with less employment and income. According to the Central Bank, Selic’s effect on inflation takes six to nine months to become significant.
Expectation for 2025
On Monday (1st) the Central Bank released the Focus Bulletin, which expects financial institutions to the main economic indicators. In relation to Closed GDP 2025the market estimates growth of 2.19%.
The Secretariat of Economic Policy (SPE) of the Ministry of Finance calculates Expansion of 2.5% in 2025according to July edition of the bimonthly macrofiscal bulletin.
By 2024, GDP closed with a 3.4%increase, a fourth year in a row in growth, with the highest expansion since 2021, when the economy grew 4.8%.
What is GDP
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the set of all goods and services produced in a locality in a given period. With the data, it is possible to draw the behavior of the economy of the country, state or city, as well as to make international comparisons.
GDP is calculated with the help of several sectoral research, such as commerce, services and industry.
During the calculation, there is care not to have double count. An example: If a country produces R $ 100 of wheat, R $ 200 of wheat flour and R $ 300 of bread, its GDP will be R $ 300, because the values of flour and wheat are already embedded in the value of bread.
The final goods and services that make up GDP are measured at the price where they reach the consumer. Thus, they also take into account the taxes charged.
GDP helps to understand the reality of a country, but does not express factors such as income distribution and living condition. It is possible, for example, for a country to have high GDP and relatively low standard of living, just as there can be a nation with low GDP and very high quality of life.
