North American tariff against Brazilian products can make, for the first time in 21 months, Brazil exports fall. The same should occur with investments and employment rates in the national industry.
The projection is in the industrial poll, released on Wednesday (20) by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI). According to the survey, the index that measures the expectation of industry exports for the next six months retreated 5.1 points in August, falling to 46.6 points.
When below 50 points, the indicator signals that entrepreneurs expect to fall in the amount exported by the sector.
“The worsening of industry export expectations is very related to the uncertainties of the external scenario, especially due to the new American trade policy,” summarizes CNI analyst Isabella Bianchi.
LEVEL EMPLOYMENT AND HIGH PRODUCTION
According to CNI, the reflexes of measures announced by the United States collaborated to retreat from the number of industrial employees, observed in July 2025, although the context is increased production in the sector.
“After retreating two points in August, the expected number of employees fell to 49.3 points. This means that entrepreneurs believe that the number of jobs in the sector will no longer rise over the next six months,” CNI said referring to the drop in the number of workers between June and July.
The production evolution rate was 52.6 points in July. Above 50 points, this index represents an increase in industrial production compared to June.
“The standards of demand and purchase of inputs and raw materials fell in August. The first shrunk 2.3 points to 53.1 points; the second, fell 1.6 points to 52.1 points,” CNI said.
“However, as they continue above the 50 -point line, they indicate a prospect of growth for the coming months, albeit to a lesser extent than in July,” he added.
Investment and UCI
Entrepreneurs are also less likely to invest. The investment intention rate retreated 1.6 point and went to 54.6 points. This is the lowest value for the indicator since October 2023. Still, the index is 2.1 points above the historical average of 52.5 points.
The survey shows stability at 71%of the use of installed capacity (UCI) remained at 71%.
This percentage, explains CNI, is the same as observed in July 2024, and is two percentage points above the annotation in July 2023, when it scored 69%.
Stable stocks
Stability was also observed – at 50.1 points – in the index that measures the evolution of the inventory level.
Regarding the effective stock index compared to the planned, 49.9 points were observed, “revealing that stocks are adjusted to the planned by industrial entrepreneurs.”
The industrial poll consulted 1,500 companies. Of these, 601 were small; 518 medium size; and 381 large research was conducted between August 1 and 12, 2025.
