Eight months after the presidential elections, we could say that a clear winner is dating: the disenchantment. No one takes off and almost four out of ten Peruvians see with interest the blank and vitiated vote. In the midst of that political orphanage, Rafael López Aliaga appears timidly, snatching Keiko Fujimori the first place, although barely bordering 10% and revealing more weakness than strength in the candidates for the Government House.
In the Ipsos survey he publishes today exclusive Peru21it is observed that the current mayor of Lima, the Popular Force leader and the comic actor Carlos Álvarez, presidential candidate of the country political party for all, continue to lead the preferences, marking a gap with the other contestants. Fourth, with 3%, appears the Regional Governor of La Libertad and President of Alliance for Progress (APP), César Acuña.
Unlike the two previous polls, carried out in July, the former mayor of Trujillo Arturo Fernández of the debutante a different path appears; Rafael Belaunde Llosa, of popular freedom; Yonhy Lescano, who, after discrepancies with the Cooperation Popular Party, reported a few days ago that the Presidency of the Republic will no longer tempt; and Vladimir Cerrón, the fugitive leader of Peru Libre. All of them with a 1st 2%.
The only one that appears again is the former Uni former, Alfonso López Chau, of the now Nation party. At the moment, very relegated in the projections, he is the best located left.
The disappointment for the bouquet of candidates and their questioned profiles means that in this survey the percentage of votes valid in white, vitiated and none to reach 38%. Inside the country, the indicator reaches 44%. In addition, 13% do not need who will choose in the elections. Who will capitalize on that bag?
In the first round of the presidential elections of 2021, the white votes reached 12.36% and the nulls to 6.34%, according to the official results of the National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE). Taking that precedent, an average of 20% of the electorate will opt for a candidate in the coming months. Time is, while the campaign is still on low heat.
Bags and trends
Precisely in that first round, Pedro Castillo obtained 18.92% (2’724,752 votes) and Keiko Fujimori got 13.41% (1’930,762 votes). On the one hand, the votes of the left that Castillo represented – today imprisoned in the Barbadillo prison – still have no owner; On the other, Fujimori maintains his historic hard vote.
Far from the 23.55% they obtained in the first round of 2011 and 39.86% in that of 2016, in 2021 it was enough 13.41% of the citizen support to access the dispute over the Pizarro armchair with Castillo. Today is 8%. Will you have a high roof or just a little one?
At least, from January to today, the trend does not favor Keiko, who has gradually losing support. In the Ipsos survey it is observed that its greatest support is among those who are more than 43 years old and those occupied by the socio -economic sectors B and D, citizens who lived the era of Fujimorate, decade in which the feneted Alberto Fujimori, between 1990 and 2000.
Meanwhile, López Aliaga has his fort in Lima. 18% of the capital’s voters would give them their support in the presidential elections of April next year. Inside, rather, his intention to vote falls to 5%, under Keiko Fujimori and Carlos Álvarez, and only one point above César Acuña.
The socioeconomic sectors A, B and C have the metropolitan burgomaster as their favorite letter. Young people between 18 and 25 years also see with good eyes the mayor of Lima. The National Registry of Identification and Civil Status (RENIEC) reported that in 2026 2.5 million Peruvians will vote for the first time, representing 10% of the electorate, so it will be imperative for campaign teams to direct a differentiated communication effort to conquer their vote.
The highest figure of the survey can be seen in the “white”, “viciated” and “none” of the socioeconomic sector and, which represents those Peruvians who are in extreme poverty, with very low income and a precarious standard of living. Relegated by the State, 50% do not sympathize with any of the candidates or political parties in the LID.
Despite the generalized discontent, there is good news: the future of the country is still in our hands.
Technical file
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