The Peruvian sun has seen in front of the dollarwhich fell to its lowest level from the health crisis due to the expectation of an upcoming cut in the interest rate of the Fed. This context has favored capital entries to emerging economies such as Peru, where foreign bond possession exceeds 46%. So far this year, the dollar accumulates a drop of 5.4% and the Lima Stock Exchange reached a historical record, reflecting the global portfolios rearrangement. Peru21 He consulted three experts about “the manual” to invest in a context like this.
Recommendations
1. Jorge Ramos, general manager of BBVA Bag, argues that the fall of the dollar and the lower performance of the assets of the United States is part of a change of economic cycle in that country, so it is common for a recomposition of investment portfolios. However, he warns that this does not imply that all the investment instruments or all the US assets have to be sold.
“Just adjust the weights of a well -diversified portfolio, either increasing exposure to other alternative currencies or assets, or expanding the position in bags of emerging countries, which are usually linked to the export of basic products,” he says.
2. While a portfolio rearrangement implies making changes in the weights of the assets and currencies in which it is invested, Ramos points out that the optimal composition will depend on our risk tolerance. “Then, the first step is to identify our risk profile: if it is aggressive, moderate or conservative,” he says.
He says that, for example, a conservative profile investor has, on average, between 60% or 70% of his capital in assets in the United States or in the dollar. Hence, it could reduce that participation from 70% to 60% or 60% to 50% to increase its position in international assets outside the United States. “For example, from Europe, Asia and Latin America,” he says.
3. For their part, Bruno Ghio, founder and CEO of Allié Family Office, argues that, in general, customers consider the dollar as the most important component of their portfolios. The reason is that, in international debt markets, 70% of emissions are carried out in this currency, while, in the share market, the American also represents about 70% of the world stock capitalization.
Therefore, it recommends that investors should have at least 70% of their dollar assets and try to diversify in other currencies with 30%. “If you invest in actions of European or emerging markets, you are diversifying outside the dollar. In fixed income it is more difficult, since the fees of the euro or yen are extremely low,” he says.
4. For the Professor of the University of the Pacific Enrique Castellanos, people must be very careful with speculating with the coins. Therefore, his “golden rule” is to save on the currency in which money will be allocated.
“If I am saving to buy a house and it is sold in dollars, then I must save in dollars. If I am saving to buy a car, the same. But if I am saving for my old age, probably there makes more sense Coins should be 50% and 50%, ”he recommends.
5. Do we keep the money in cash or an asset? For Ramos, from BBVA bag, it is advisable to have it in an asset. The case of Mines of Mines Buenaventura quotes as an example. These titles so far this year have won 52.8%. Ramos points out that, although the dollar has lost courage and Buenaventura is quoted in that currency, the gain he has had for the increase in the minerals it produces has compensated for dollar loss.
6. In a context of elections as in our country, is it favorable to get rid of the dollar? Since an environment like that generates volatility in the prices of all assets in the country, Castellanos argues that the dollar tends to rise, with which, the rule of saving in the currency in which we are going to spend charges relevance. For Ramos, therefore, lies the importance of diversification.
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