The Peruvian economy registered a growth rate of 4.52% in June compared to a similar period of the previous year, which represented the second highest level so far this year.
According to INEI data, the growth of economic activity in the sixth month of the year was associated with the rebound of fishing, whose production was shot 33.7% due to the largest landing of resources for the industry. This dynamism of the fishing sector pulled manufacturing that grew 7.3% in that month.
Another significant advance in June was experienced by the construction sector, whose activity recorded an advance of 9.6%, associated with an expansion of local cement consumption of 9.1%. This due to a greater “dynamism in the execution of private and self -construction works,” according to INEI.
In contrast, mining and hydrocarbons, the third sector of greatest contribution to the economy after manufacturing and other services, grew just 1%. The statistical entity reported that the mining sector individually grew 1.9% and hydrocarbons fell 4.74%.
Thus, the growth achieved by national production in June led to an advance in the quarterly GDP of 2.9%, with which the economy would have slowed over the first quarter (3.9%). Also, in the accumulated, the GDP recorded a growth of 3.33% in the first six months and 3.75% in the last 12 months.
On the other hand, with respect to the result of the free economy of the seasonal fluctuations of the month, the INEI said that in June it would have registered a 0.21%drop.
TREND
What is the economy growth expectation for next month? Adrián Armas, central manager of Economic Studies of the BCR, stressed that the monetary authority projects a growth rate for July of the order of 3%. “This, considering that the 4.5% registered in June includes extraordinary growth of primary GDP, which advanced 6% and would be moderated in July,” he said.
Armas said that taking into account the BCR GDP forecast for this year of 3.1%, the expectation is that the third and fourth quarter economic activity grows similar to the second quarter.
“However, the important thing is that the economy has been growing at a good pace,” he said.
He said that “the good news” is that there are already several moments when the quarterly growth of GDP is maintained, which influences consumer confidence and business confidence and that is reflected in the growth of private investment.
According to the Peruvian Institute of Economics (IPE), in the second quarter, private investment would have grown 7.5%, chaining six consecutive hits. With this, it would accumulate an 8.1% advance in the first half of the year, the highest rate for a semester since 2013, without considering the recovery after the pandemic.
As for private consumption, this would have increased 3.2%, a lower rate than the previous quarter (3.8%). For its part, public spending would have registered a lower dynamism, explained by a more moderate growth in public investment (5.0%), after expanding two digits in the first quarter.
DATA
- In the second quarter, total employment at the national level grew 0.8%. 137 thousand jobs were created.
- This rhythm was lower than the previous quarter, due to the slowdown in urban employment: it grew 0.9%, compared to 1.7% of the first quarter, according to the Peruvian Institute of Economics (IPE).
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