Transfers prevented 4.2 million people from falling into poverty

Transfers help, but they are not enough

INEGI estimated two “with” and “without” scenarios to statistically observe the effect on poverty reduction.

In 2024, 29.6% of the population lived in poverty; Without government support, that proportion would have been 32.8%.

In absolute terms, transfers prevented 4.2 million people from falling into poverty. In extreme poverty, the effect was 5.3% with support for 6.9% without them, that is, two million people in a critical situation.

“The increase to the government’s monetary transfers concentrated towards homes with greater income and has a minimum effect on poverty and void on extreme poverty,” warned citizen action against poverty, which also emphasizes that 65% of the poorest households do not receive these support.

The trend is similar in the income measurement. Without transfers, the proportion of people with income below the extreme poverty line would be 12.8%, compared to 9.3% registered; and in moderate poverty, 39.7% compared to 35.4%.

Despite these figures, the work remains the dominant source of income, since it provides 75 out of every 100 pesos that homes receive, while government transfers provide more than 16.

Alejandra Macías, director of the Center for Economic and Budgetary Research (CIEP), admits that the minimum wage has had a decisive role in poverty reduction.

“It is undeniable that the increase in the minimum wage has been significant, especially after years of containment. It has contributed to improving the entry of those who earn less, even in a context of low economic growth.”

Commercialization of deficiencies

The most serious setback is in access to health services. In 2018, 20 million people lacked them; In 2024, the figure rose to 44.5 million, equivalent to 34% of the population, with critical peaks such as Chiapas, where it reaches 63.3%.

“The balance could be negative if income increases but the health, education or housing services are deteriorated,” said Máximo Jaramillo, a researcher at the Institute for Inequality Studies, who also pointed to a “re -mactilization” of health. He argues that in 2018, four out of 10 people with health problems went to the private sector; By 2022, there were six out of 10.

Alejandra Macías agrees that this deterioration is forcing families to allocate part of the additional income to cover services that should be public.

“It may be that families do have more money in their pocket, but they have to spend it on goods and services that should be provided publicly. The clearest example is health: no matter how talk about a universal system, people end up serving in pharmacies or private services,” he said.

It needs to focus social policy

“Social policy is due to the social dimension there are no substantive improvements,” concludes the analysis of citizen action against poverty. The organization emphasizes that, despite the increase in transfers spending – less than 150,000 million pesos in 2018 to 700,000 million in 2024 – its impact on extreme poverty is null and its benefits are concentrated in middle and high income homes.

Among its proposals include: creating quality jobs, guaranteeing health and education with equity, correcting the distribution of transfers so as not to exclude the poorest and enhance the labor participation of women and young people.

For Macías, reducing extreme poverty will require “more organized policies that identify and attend to those who need more support, instead of dispersing resources.” In addition, he emphasized that, without a tax reform where they pay more who they have the most, it will be very difficult to finance more ambitious social policies.

The challenge, specialists and organizations coincide, is to move from a social policy focused on transfers to another that builds an effective rights of rights, capable of sustaining well -being beyond income.