The Federation of Industries of the State of São Paulo (FIESPE) updated its statistics and expectations in economic indices and maintained the growth projection of gross domestic product (GDP) at 2.4% for 2025. The entity intended to review the index to 2.6%, but maintained the previous expectation. 
Maintenance was due to a worsening under international conditions, with the beginning of the US government’s tariff.
This week, the Financial market reviewed downwards Economics growth expectations, projecting, at the end of 2025, a 2.21%GDP.
“We were before working with a high bias perspective that has been dissipated, even taking into account the rate of tariffs, but it is also important to highlight that regarding the rate of tariffs, we made a calculation that the potential impact on GDP to 2025 is 0.2, so in fact this 0.2 was the possible bias that we could have. FIESP chief economist and one of those responsible for Fiesp Data Tracker, Brazil agency.
Although the perspective is still positive, the federation analysis is falling in some punctual sectors, with a 0.6% decrease for agriculture and 0.7% for the transformation industry. It is also expected a moderate drop in government consumption, 0.4%, and the level of investments, with a 0.7% decrease in mobilized resources.
“In general, for the second half, as already anticipated, this slowdown was expected. In this accommodation with reduction of activity, the investments and the consumption of the government also appear as variables that are slowing. This is a movement of natural accommodation,” said the analyst.
In the case of the transformation industry, this variation is mainly linked to the challenge of the expected economy for the second half. “It is important to highlight that one of the issues that are putting obstacles and making the economic environment more challenging for the sector is internal and external financial restrictions,” adds Rocha, referring to the credit scenario, that is, interest on external and internal markets.
This international financial restriction is one of the decisive factors also for the fall in investments, and adds to natural uncertainty in electoral years, With the approach of presidential succession and in the states in 2026, and with the increase of tariffs to Brazil and several other commercial partners of the United States. Imports also tend to fall, reflecting a decrease in the rhythm of the activity, retreating by 1.5%.
Consumption of families and services
Among the indicators that remain warm, monitoring pointed out a moderate growth trend of 0.4% to the industrial sector as a whole and of 0.3% advance to the service sector.
Family consumption also tends to increase, with demand expansion by 0.6%. Even with international uncertainty the entity maintains expectation of export growth, with a discreet advance of 0.2%.
