The National Development Plan 2022–2026, baptized by the Government as ‘Colombia, world power of life’, advances with partial achievements, structural challenges and an increasing obstacle due to the fiscal crisis facing the country after The fall in the tax collection of 2023 and the modest rhythm to which GDP progresses.
Although some sectors show overcomplications or indicators in positive land, fiscal data reveal that the most critical goals in the hacienda sector are far from being fulfilled and that, in the middle of the mandate, The government’s financial maneuver has been drastically reduced.
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With a cut at June 30, 2025, the global advance of the plan is 58.2%, and in the finance component, the execution is unequal; Since the indicator on special assets delivered to popular economies advances at 152.5 %, well above the goal, while other key data, such as the primary balance of the non -financial public sector, territorial pension coverage and the growth of social security contributors, mark alert signals.
Partial advance in income, deterioration in expenses
One of the achievements that the Government stands out is the behavior of the tax collectioneither; Since as of December 2024, the net collection as a percentage of GDP reached an advance of 82.66% compliance against the four -year goal; While in the case of territorial tax and non -tax revenues, the progress was 95.04%, promoted by the strengthening of local capacities and measures such as the harmonization of tax statutes.
The lack of resources has stopped the implementation of social programs in this administration.
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However, the other face of the balance is less favorable; Since the indicator of the primary balance of the non -financial public sector, which measures the difference between income and expenses without counting debt interest, presents an advance of -105.8%, a negative result that implies that the country not only moved away from its fiscal equilibrium goal, but also deepened the deficit with respect to the expected.
This trend is consistent with the findings of the medium -term fiscal framework, which anticipated a central government deficit of 7.1% of GDP by 2025 and warned of a greater weight of permanent expenses against structural income. In other words, the State is spending much more than it produces, which limits its ability to sustainably finance the objectives of the National Development Plan.
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Social Security and Pensions
Another weak point in the finance component is the low incorporation of new contributors to the social security system, since with a cut as of December 31, 2023, the progress of this indicator barely reached 15.53%, a result well below expected; thus reaffirming the persistent difficulties to formalize employment in Colombia, especially in rural, informal and self -employment sectors.
In addition, the percentage of territorial entities with pension liabilities coverage It stood at 28.8% at the end of 2023, evidencing the lag in the sanitation of subnational pension obligations; If one takes into account that these non -covered liabilities represent a silent fiscal bomb that, if not resolved, can compromise both regional balance and the sustainability of the system as a whole.
The lack of resources has stopped the implementation of social programs in this administration.
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A plan without financial muscle
Portfolio spoke with Juan Carlos Arbeláez, director of Taxes and Legal Affairs at Crowe Colombia, who based on the previous data, said that the impact of the fiscal crisis on the development plan is undeniable and that although the course can be corrected, it does not trust that great advances in the last year of government will be achieved.
“It is unquestionable because in order to execute that National Development Plan, which was quite ambitious, many resources were needed. And also, for anyone is a secret, the resources have not arrived Because a good part of the budget has been in general expenses of the State, ”he explained.
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In his opinion, this situation has caused social investment capacity to be lost, precisely the central axis of the government’s plan; Since the loss of fiscal muscle affects not only budget execution, but also the political and technical viability of structural reforms such as work, pension and energy.
Arbeláez estimates that, despite the efforts to rebuild the road, The global advance of the plan will hardly exceed 65% or 70% at the close of the four -year period, well below the 85% objective and although it says that “I hope to make mistakes” admits that there is a political will to correct.
The lack of resources has stopped the implementation of social programs in this administration.
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According to Arbeláez, there are strategic sectors where the government could focus its management to improve the execution of the plan and close the mandate with a less weak balance. One of them is food insecurity, especially in departments such as Chocó and La Guajira, where there is still no clarity about the real impact of care programs.
It also highlights the potential of tertiary roads in rural areas, within the framework of regional convergence and although it acknowledges that there are works, warns that many of these advances are not Reflected in official indicators, which remains visibility to real achievements.
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“Another front that could show positive results is the digital productive transformation, where some companies have accessed state benefits and accompaniment. According to Mintic estimates, the progress in this indicator is between 35% or 36%, which opens a window of opportunity to increase that figure in the remaining months,” he said.
Finally, he mentions the energy transition, although he warns that this sector Face bottlenecks such as delays in previous consultations, which have stopped the development of solar and wind energy projects and points out that “if the Government manages to unlock these projects, the execution of the PND could improve significantly.”
The lack of resources has stopped the implementation of social programs in this administration.
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Finally, it must be said that the labor component of the National Development Plan also shows partial advances and structural lags, since although labor formality reached 99.77% compliance and the inclusion of people with disabilities and victims exceed 77%, other key indicators show delay.
For example, pension coverage in older adults barely reaches 50.28%, and the young population that neither studies nor works only reaches an advance of 34.21%. To this is added the lag in the reduction of child labor and The intermediate progress in placements of women and young people, which ranges between 63 % and 72 %.
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The results reflect that, despite institutional efforts, the promise of greater labor inclusion and social protection remains incomplete and that to close the four -year period with tangible impact, the Government must redouble efforts in youth employment, pensions and gender equity.
Daniel Hernández Naranjo
Portfolio journalist
