In more than you would like and in less than you think: artificial intelligence advances us when the end of the Cuban regime will be
Dublin, Ireland.- In recent months, journalists, analysts and citizens of Cuba and their diaspora have begun to wonder more strongly: how much more time can the Cuban regime be sustained? To explore this issue, we turn to Chatgpt, the language model developed by OpenAI, formulating the question directly: “Would you dare to predict how much the Cuba regime is left in power? Be impartial and analytical.”
The following is your answer, based on an analysis of economic, political and social data.
An irreversible decline system
According to the response generated by Chatgpt, the Cuban regime today crosses its most critical stage from the so -called “Special period“. Unlike the 90s, in which the island managed to cushion the Soviet collapse with new alliances (such as Venezuela, and more recently Russia), currently all external sources of financing are dry or in crisis.
Chronic energy crisis
The blackouts They are now a constant, and the collapse of thermoelectric plants has caused the country to depend on Turkish electric barges, which are beginning to withdraw due to lack of payment. Without a functional energy network, basic economic activity is paralyzed, generating greater social pressure and deterioration.
Neither Russia nor other allies can (or want) to hold the regime as in the past. Cuba does not comply with the agreed payments, which has led to a silent leakage of foreign capital. Without investments, there is no development of sectors such as tourism, construction or agribusiness.
Collapsed tourism
Hotel occupation barely exceeds 30%, and the lack of products, infrastructure and services make Cuba a little competitive destination. The big international chains are reconsidering their permanence. Tourism, That it was one of the main sources of currencies, is injured in death.
Medical export: boom and fall
The so -called “model of Export of professional services”It has been one of the main tools of the regime to obtain income. However, since its peak in 2014, more than 60%has decreased. Today confronts litigation, defections and complaints of labor violations in countries such as Italy, Angola, Brazil and Mexico. The international reputation of the model is seriously damaged.
Social discomfort and mass migration
Repression persists, but social control is increasingly fragile. Fear is no longer absolute. Sporadic protests, open criticism and an overflowing migration – more than half a million Cubans have left the country only in the last two years – indicate that the stability of the system is more apparent than real.
How long?
Chatgpt concludes that the regime could enter its last five years of functional viability. Not necessarily as a sudden collapse, but as a slow implosion, marked by the cumulative deterioration of its economic and political pillars. Except for an unexpected turn – a negotiated opening, a new saving alliance or an agreed transition – the end of the current model seems closer and closer.
This article was elaborated from a question raised to ChatgPT, OpenAi language model, for analytical and informative purposes. The evaluation does not constitute a definitive prediction, but a contextualized reading of current trends in Cuba.
