THE Prediction of the Financial Market for the National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) – considered the country’s official inflation – went from 5.09% to 5.07% this year. It is the tenth reduction followed by the estimate, published in the Focus Bulletin this Monday (4). The survey is released weekly by the Central Bank (BC) with the expectation of financial institutions for the main economic indicators.
For 2026, inflation projection ranged from 4.44% to 4.43%. For 2027 and 2028, predictions are 4% and 3.8%, respectively.
THE Estimate for 2025 is above the inflation target ceiling that must be pursued by the BC. Defined by the National Monetary Council (CMN), the goal is 3%, with a tolerance interval of 1.5 percentage up or down. That is, the lower limit is 1.5% and the upper 4.5%.
In June, even pressured by electricity, official inflation – released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) – lost strength and closed at 0.24%marked by the first drop in food price after nine months. Despite the slowdown in recent months, the Cumulated index in 12 months reached 5.35%, being for the sixth month in a row above the target ceiling of up to 4.5%.
This period of six months above 4.5% configures the popular burst for the new regime adopted in 2024 . Each time this happens, the president of the BC has to disclose, through an open letter to the Minister of Finance, who presides over CMN, Detailed description of the causes of non -compliancethe measures to ensure the return of inflation to the established limits and the deadline in which the measures are expected to have effect.
Basic interest
To achieve the inflation target, the Central Bank uses as its main instrument the basic interest rate, Selic, defined at 15% per year by the BC monetary policy committee (COPOM). THE retreat of inflation and the beginning of the deceleration of the economy They made the board interrupted the interest rate increase at the last meeting last week after seven highs in Selic.
In a statement, Copom reported that US commercial policy has increased uncertainties over prices. The monetary authority reported that, for now, it intends to maintain basic interest rates, but has not ruled out the possibility of raising Selic again if necessary.
THE analysts estimate is that the basic rate ends 2025 in 15% per year. For the end of 2026, Selic is expected to fall to 12.5% per year. For 2027 and 2028, it is expected to be reduced again to 10.5% per year and 10% per year, respectively.
When Copom increases the basic interest rate, the purpose is to contain heated demand, and this causes reflexes in prices because the highest interest rates make credit more expensive and stimulate savings. But in addition to Selic, banks consider other factors when defining consumer interest, such as risk of default, profit and administrative expenses. Thus, higher rates can also make it difficult to expand the economy.
When the Selic rate is reduced the tendency is that credit is cheaper, with incentive to production and consumption, reducing control over inflation and stimulating economic activity.
GDP and exchange
THE Estimation of financial institutions for the growth of the Brazilian economy this year remained at 2.23% in this edition of the Focus Bulletin. For 2026, the projection for Gross Domestic Product (GDP – the sum of goods and services produced in the country) went from 1.89% to 1.88%. For 2027 and 2028, the financial market estimates GDP expansion by 1.95% and 2%, respectively.
Pulled by agriculture in the first quarter of 2025, the Brazilian economy grew 1.4%according to IBGE. By 2024, GDP closed with a 1.4%increase. THE Result represents the fourth year in a row in growth, with the highest expansion since 2021 when GDP reached 4.8%.
THE Prediction of the dollar quotation is $ 5.60 for the end of this year. At the end of 2026, the US currency is estimated to be $ 5.70.
