The Brazilian economy remains warm, which makes the labor market yet has suffered the contractionist effects of monetary policy, represented by high interest rates. On the contrary, Brazil is creating jobs, evaluate economists heard by Brazil agencybased on data from the National Continuous Household Sample Survey (Continuous PNAD).
Released this Thursday (31), the survey of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) reveals that the Exocupancy rate in the quarter ended in June is the lowest ever recorded in the historical series of the survey, which began in 2012, reaching 5.8%.
The continuous PNAD also shows that the country has reached a record in the number of occupied people (102.3 million – 1.8 million more than in the first quarter), the contingent of workers with a formal contract (39 million) and the average monthly income (R $ 3,477).
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Surprise
Economist Gilberto Braga, a professor at IBMEC, said the eviction rate for the first time below 6% was a “beautiful surprise”. Growth was expected, not decreased, he said.
Braga considered the index surprising by the fact that it was reached in the high interest period, specifically from Selic, which impacts the other interest rates of the economy. Currently Selic is at 15% per year.
“The result is surprising as, not only with respect to absolute unemployment, but in all forms of crossing, it came very positive: there was an increase in hiring people with a formal contract, decreased informality and increased average worker remuneration.”
PNAD Continuous pointed to informality rate – proportion of workers without labor rights in the occupied population – 37.8% in the second quarter, the lowest rate, from the same quarter of 2020 (36.6%).
BC brake
The Economy Basic Interest Rate (Selic) is decided every 45 days by the Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee (BC) and consists of the main way for the institution to pursue the government -stipulated inflation target, currently 3% per year, with tolerance of 1.5 percentage points (PP) for more or less.
Since September 2024, official inflation calculated by IBGE is above the maximum goal limit of 4.5%. In June, the 12 -month accumulated of the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) was 5.35%. The burst of the goal explains why the BC has left Selic at high levels.
The upward trajectory began in September 2024, when Copom began to rise to Selic, until then 10.5% per year. In June, interest reached 15%, the highest level since July 2006 (15.25%). The latest Copom meeting, last Wednesday (30), kept the rate on this level.
One face of high interest rate is the contractionist effect, which fights inflation. Raising the rate causes loans to be more expensive – whether for individuals or companies – and discourages investments, as it can be worth keeping the money invested, yielding high interest rates than risking productive activities.
This set of effects brakes the economy. Hence comes the negative reflection: less activity tends to be synonymous with less employment and income. According to the BC, the Selic effect on inflation takes six to nine months to become significant.
Resistance
Economist Rodolpho Tobler, from the Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), points out that the economic scenario behaves in a “contradictory” way.
“This result seems a little contradictory, since we live a very complex macroeconomic moment, with interest rates at a very high level, but the job market has followed the pace of what has seen from economic activity. While the economy rotates strongly, the unemployment rate and the job market go to the same line,” adds Tobler.
Motors
Economist Sandro Sacchet, from the Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA), an agency linked to the Ministry of Planning and Budget, considers “normal the labor market to respond to variations in Selic, both down and up.”
Sacchet points out two reasons that help explain the delay for the level of employment to feel the high interest rates. One is the maintenance of the highest values of the Bolsa Família Income Transfer Program at R $ 600. The amount was paid emergency during the Covid-19 pandemic became definitive in 2023.
“This makes the job market respond more to families consumption and less to companies’ investment,” he explains. “The job market can support themselves because of the consumption of families and the maintenance of income because of a benefit of Bolsa Familia Maior,” he adds.
Another factor, in the view of the researcher specializing in topics such as employment and income, is the largest insertion of workers on their own in the economy. According to Pnad, the contingent of people who work on their own amounts to 25.7 million, the largest ever determined.
According to IBGE Household Sample Research Coordinator Adriana Beringuy, between 75% and 80% of them do not have CNPJ (National Register of Legal Entities), are informal. “This also makes the labor market more dependent on household consumption and less investment from formal companies,” he says.
“This structural change in the labor market helps to explain a little why occupation and income have responded even more slowly to interest rates,” he adds.
However, Sacchet points out that the level of employment is not immune to the highest Selic. “Over time, it will end up affecting the unemployment rate.”
Coming months
For economist Rodolpho Tobler, over the next six months, and also in 2026, may not be able to maintain this pace of growth in the labor market, as the economy tends to “cool”.
According to Tobler, there are already some data showing a start of slowdown in economic activity. “So it is natural for the job market to slow down a little,” says the coordinator of Ibre’s business and labor market indicators.
“We do not expect the job rate to rise a lot, that commerce has a great mass resignation. We only expect the job not to continue this same pace as strong, as it is observed since 2023, especially 2024, and now this first half of the year,” he concludes.
Sandro Sacchet says he expects “little elevation” in the unemployment rate, which would already fall at the end of the year with Christmas signings. “The unemployment rate should remain at lower levels than last year by the end of 2025,” he estimates.
