Last Mártes, July 29, Mexican airlines faced one of their most critical regulatory moments. The deadline imposed by the US Department of Transportation to present full flight schedules beat without a single official statement. This deafening silence could cost more expensive than the roar of any turbine.
The Trump administration is not playing. Let P. Duffy, secretary of Transportation, made clear his position: “That these actions serve as a warning to any country that thinks you can take advantage of the United States.” The consequences of Mexican inaction are as calculated as devastating.
If the Mexican airlines did not comply with the delivery of schedules yesterday, the DOT will activate their punitive arsenal. Aeromexico, Volaris and Viva Aerobus could systematically rejected their future flight requests. It is not an empty threat: the department explicitly reserves “the right to disapprove of Mexico’s flight requests if the country does not take corrective actions.”
For October, the Delta-Aeromexico Alliance-which moves 800 million dollars annually and operates almost two dozen routes-could completely disintegrate. The loss of antitrust immunity would force both airlines to suspend the coordination of prices, capacity and distribution of income that has made them the most successful air corridor between the two countries.
This outcome was predictable. Since 2022, when Mexico rescinded Slots in the AICM and forced the transfer of cargo to AIFA, US signals were unequivocal. The DOT letter of May 9 to the Federal Civil Aviation Agency was not a diplomatic courtesy, but formal ultimatum. Mexico opted that Trump would replicate Biden tolerance. He calculated badly.
The Mexican argument on “privilege security” is crumbled at reality: three years later, the promised infrastructure improvements in the AICM remain media mirages. The United States has documented that Mexico has “breached its promise, disturbed the market and left US companies with millions of additional costs.”
The absence of official statements yesterday reveals the seriousness of the moment. Neither the Presidency of Sheinbaum nor the sict have confirmed compliance with the term. This mutism suggests two equally worrying scenarios: total breach or desperate negotiations of last minute.
The private sector already expressed its alarm. Canaero recognizes the “high impact for the air industry” while Delta warns of “significant damage to consumers, jobs and cross -border competition.” They are the voices of those who understand that 2025 is not 2022.
Mexico faces a brutal lesson on international law. The principle “PACK SUNT SERVANDA” – the agreed must be fulfilled does not admit nationalist interpretations. Bilateral agreements are binding commitments, not negotiable suggestions according to internal political conveniences.
The decision to convert AIFA into exclusive load terminal may have been strategically correct, but its unilateral implementation, ignoring the 2015 agreement, was legally disastrous. The United States does not punish Mexican airport development; sanctions the contractual breach.
The silence of Mexican airplanes could have been more eloquent than any motor roar. In aviation, as in diplomacy, timing is everything. And Mexico is losing yours.
