Who was going to say it! The criticized, demonized and vilified US dollar, which for many years did not want to name it in the political sphere in Bolivia, for being related to the “Yankee Empire”, and in front of which the national currency – the Bolivian – made it displayed of strength for more than a decade, today it is not only daily in everyone’s mouth, but now it is required, desired and even depositary In this currency a kind of refuge against the merciless inflation that undermined the purchasing power of the Bolivian.
Indeed, the official exchange rate of the dollar in the country, which had closed at Bs8.08 on December 31, 2005, began to slowly decline its price along that national exports grew, the commercial surplus was repeated, and the Net International Reserves (RIN) of the Central Bank of Bolivia (BCB) increased, reaching to quote Bs6,96 on November 9, 2011 From which it is maintained without change, with the relevant clarification that today it is practically impossible to get the dollar at that price, since the absence of a truly free parallel market, resulted in a black market where the dollar came to touch the Bs20.- In mid-May last May due to external and internal factors- objectives and subjective ones- that once placated, resulted in a downturn of the currency until it was located between Bs16.-
However, during the last days, not only the physical dollar but also the crypto (virtual) dollar, they have been experiencing a downward trend, quoting at the time of writing this column in just over Bs13.- Positioning three repetitive questions: why is the dollar down? How much will it go down? And, the million -dollar question: will the dollar go up again?
To try to answer these questions – whose answers could change the lives of many people for good, if it is atamated, and for worse, if a bad prognosis is made – it will be necessary to understand that answering such questions in any way is something easy, being that the market price of the US currency obeys the conjunction of several elements not only of economic order, but also, also, political, social and something not less: the expectations of the people.
Among the explanations of the analysts and of whom they are precious to be clarified in the matter, they tell as arguments for the decline of the dollar: an increase in their market offer for the growth of exports; the lower demand for dollars by importers; a change in the expectations of the population for the improvement of the position of the RIN of the BCB – as it will be informed – and that come better days, after the general elections; also, that the decline is due to the fall of the dollar against other currencies; To disaster, for fear that the dollar falls more, among other reasons, although these are the main ones.
Faced with this, the evidence: legal export has been going down, instead of growing; The dollars continue to leave the country for the deficit of foreign trade; It sounds reasonable that the decline is due to the fact that importation is decreasing for market reasons, being that in many items the products or companies do not endure having to operate with a 100% more expensive dollar than the officer; Regarding the incidence of the fall of the dollar worldwide, its impact is marginal in the country, not, the change in the expectations of economic agents.
As the economy is often more explained by psychology than by “numerology”, expectations could be playing a gravitational role, p. Ex.: Given uncertainty, less business linked to the dollar, stop their demand; There is also the hope of an improvement for a change in economic policy; The announcements of politicians who aspire to the presidency, offering gold and the Moor to get votes, promising a rain of short -term dollars, either via colossal external credits, export release, early sales of natural resources, etc., in addition to a drastic cut of public spending to control the fiscal deficit.
The above, are the difficult answers, to verify, before the brave and recurring question: “Why does the dollar go down?” But, no less risky it is to answer the second questioning: “How much will it go down?”
In order for the dollar to give deep structural changes in order to increase exports and bring dollars to the country; replace imports, to avoid currency output abroad; In addition, improve the environment to capture foreign investments or international credits, all of which does not happen overnight. It is enough to see what is happening in Argentina that, despite its progress, still fights with the increase of the dollar.
As for the Million question: “Will the dollar upload again?” Someone pointed out: “You may, maybe not, the safest thing is that who knows!” Only God, who is not an economist, knows it …
