The red flag in the electricity bill and rates of tariffs in five capitals pressed the Brazilian’s pocket in July, causing the inflation preview to be 0.33%, above that recorded in June (0.26%).
At the same time, the price of food – a villain of inflation in recent months – has fallen for the second month in a row, helping to hold the National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA -15), which measures the preview of official inflation.
The data were released on Friday (25), in Rio de Janeiro, by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). With the result, the IPCA-15 accumulates 5.3% in the last 12 months, above the government’s goal, which tolerates up to 4.5%. In July 2024, the IPCA-15 had been 0.30%.
Of the nine IBGE products and services groups, five were discharged in July.
Check out results and impacts on percentage points (PP)
-Food and drinks: -0.06% (-0.01 pp)
– Housing: 0.98% (0.15 pp)
– Residence articles: -0.02% (0 pp)
– Clothing: -0.10% (0 pp)
– Transport: 0.67% (0.13 pp)
– Health and personal care: 0.21% (0.03 pp)
– Personal Expenses: 0.25% (0.03 pp)
– Education: 0.00% (0 pp)
– Communication: 0.11% (0 pp)
Light account
Although it was the biggest discharge impact on inflation preview, the rise of 0.98% of the housing group slowed before June, when it marked (1.08%). Now in July, the group was pressured by residential electricity, which rose 3.01%, with sub-item with the highest positive impact of the entire IPCA-15.
The fault of this increase is on the red tariff flag level 1determined by the government to fund thermoelectric plants in low times in the hydroelectric reservoirs. Started in June, the additional $ 4.46 charge for every 100 kilowatt hours consumed was maintained in July. Last month, residential energy rose 3.29%.
The sub -item was also pressured for readjustments in the accounts in Belo Horizonte, Porto Alegre, Curitiba, Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. As the IPCA-15 is national, these regional increases are reflected in the index.
Food
After retreating 0.02% in June, foods fell again in July, this time, 0.06%. The droppings of the jellyfish (-10.48%), onion (-9.08%) and rice (-2.69%) were the ones that pulled down the result the most.
Prior to these two setbacks, the price of food has been a big villain, so much so that it accumulates 7.36% in 12 months, the group of the highest variation in the entire IPCA-15 is configured. One of the factors that have helped lower costs is the Brazilian crop, expected to be a record.
Transportation
In the Transportes Group, the 0.67% increase was driven by the airline tickets, which rose 19.86% (impact of 0.11 pp) and application car services ((14.55% and 0.03 pp).
The fuels brought relief with a decrease of 0.57%. The prices of vehicle gas (-1.21%), diesel (-1.09%), ethanol (-0.83%) and gasoline (-0.50%) fell. Since gasoline is the most representative sub-item in the consumer basket of Brazilians, the July result made it represent the most weight of the entire IPCA-15 (-0.03 pp)
IPCA-15
The IPCA-15 basically has the same IPCA methodology, so-called official inflation, which is the basis for government inflation target policy: 3% in 12 months, with a 1.5 pp tolerance margin for more or less.
The difference is in the price collection period and geographical scope. In the preview, the survey is done and released even before the reference month is over. Regarding current disclosure, the collection period was from June 14 to July 15.
Both indexes take into account a basket of products and services to families with income between one and 40 minimum wages. Currently the minimum value is R $ 1,518.
The IPCA-15 collects prices in 11 cities of the country (the metropolitan regions of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, Sao Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador and Curitiba, as well as Brasilia and Goiânia.); and the IPCA, 16 locations (Vitória, Campo Grande, Rio Branco, São Luís and Aracaju). The IPCA full of July will be released on August 12.
